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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bald Man from Mars who wrote (10666)	6/27/1998 4:08:00 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

BMFM - none of the Internet stocks had a 17 million float before the runup. Most had a float of 2 -4 million which was heavily shorted (30% - 100%) when those stocks were in the 20's - 40's. TAVA will be a daytraders dream because the volume and volatility are high, easy to go short and long without bumping the price too much. With 21 million shares out, TAVA has to do $100 million revenue and net 15% in FY1999 to meet its estimates. That's more than double the trailing revenue. Do you think they can double their business with no growing pains in that short a time frame? Then do you think they can sustain $100 million revenues with continued growth sufficient to justify a PE of 30? And finally, I've been thinking about starting a thread called "Inevitable Earnings". You see it over and over and over on SI - TAVA, CLCK, IAIC, the list is endless. With so much information available today and so many players in the market, is it possible to keep a "hidden gem" hidden for long? And if not - which I assume is the case - why hasn't the market priced up these stocks in anticipation? There is a lot here that doesn't add up, even before you look at TAVA's dubious financing. Be careful. I doubt any surge in TAVA will take it past the tremendous overhead built up around 13 - 14. Heck, 2 million shares volume is still less than 15% of the float.