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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayners who wrote (7837)	6/27/1998 12:51:00 PM
From: jason D.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164687

Here's my 2 cents: If I was an owner of AMZN stock who got in at a good price (say below 60)I would sell Monday morning at the open. It will probably gap down but probably not below 90. So I would get out in the nineties with a very respectable profit. I would then set at Buy Stop at 107, and forget about the stock. This strategy is based upon my belief that: 1) AMZN is looking wonderfully bearish. The recent volume is telling. I don't think AMZN has a chance of holding 90, if it bounces it will be at 80. Consequently, I will roll out my July puts (which I actually own)a month or two when it hits that level. I don't want to get caught at a second top (between 90 and 100) as my July contracts expire, if it does bounce. 2) Monday should be nasty. I would sell at the open because AMZN could easily be down 7 or more by day's end, but may only open 1-3 points down. I wouldn't be greedy and hope for some mid-morning strength that would garner me an extra point or two before it really starts to catapult. 3) AMZN has failed 100 before splitting AND after splitting. 100 is the most relevant price point here. The 2nd is 80. If it bounces off 80, and breaks above 95 I will be a big time put buyer, again. However, if it bounces off 90 Monday I would be surprised and concerned by the strength and likely not increase my put positions if it approaches 100 again, although I would roll them out to Aug. This all said, Wall Street analysts' comments about this stock can border on the absurd, and since fundamentals aren't really an issue here (it hasn't traded on fundamentals for months)some influential yahoo could come out with an upgrade Monday and provide support at 90. If there are significant downgrades, don't necessarily expect a stop at 80 . . next stop will be the 60's. If it breaks and holds 100, I become a greater fool buyer. Human behavior is most predictable at extremes, both up and down. We are currently in that situation with AMZN which makes for sensational moneymaking opportunities for savvy investors. Happy Investing! -Jason