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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jawd who wrote (7850)	6/27/1998 5:17:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164687

I entirely agree - hoping and wishing is futile in trading. I was expressing my view as an observer. IMHO Going long or short in AMZN right now is dangerous, it could go anywhere. I just don't think one down days spells the end for AMZN. Comparisons with IOM (which I never followed) don't seem appropriate to me because its a hardware stock based on sales figures. I'm suggesting what we are seeing with AMZN is a concept stock based on potential for exponential growth of the internet. People rightly or wrongly are buying into what for some is a dream and for others a joke. Given the momentum of Amazons marketing campaign, I really don't see anything to stop a whole crop of new (stock) buyers (and shorters) entering the picture. Like I said, it may appear to tank for a couple of days, but I see a whole load of people taking this as a huge buying opportunity to get in on the next run up. AMZN has mass appeal. Plus, to be honest - the analysts are playing along with the hype. Even CNBC is mute. It seems taboo in professional circles to say anything negative about AMZN. I think its far from over. Jawd, I do not agree but that is not the point. Your reasoning here for potential long gains are very possible. What bothers me, is what is in it for the analysts to hype the stock? I do not mean they will not or do not. I mean why are they doing that? Glenn

To: jawd who wrote (7850)	6/27/1998 5:53:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 164687

jawd, re >Plus, to be honest - the analysts are playing along with the hype. Even CNBC is mute. It seems taboo in professional circles to say anything negative about AMZN. This phenomenon isn't unique to AMZN. With any stock making new 52 week highs, you won't find very many analysts and market commentators sticking their neck out and taking the contrarian position. Most analysts and market commentators simply regurgitate in words what the stock price is indicating. But once the internet hype dies down a little, you can always expect a "pile-on" effect, with reporters searching out and quoting from bearish market professionals. Additionally, it's typical to see analysts upgrading at tops and downgrading at or near bottoms. Most analyst's timing is utterly terrible, and investors buying or selling based on analyst upgrades or downgrades would long ago have been run broke. I'm sure someone will point me to analysts who were bullish on the internet sector earlier this year. H&Q, BA Robbie Stephens, etc. A stopped clock is right twice a day. But when these stocks begin to trade on fundamentals, how many analyst's will we see that are still bullish, and how many downgraded at the right time? At present, we see 1 sell and 2 holds, the rest are at buy or strong buy. Dain Rauscher Wessels made a good call Friday, IMO. DK

To: jawd who wrote (7850)	6/28/1998
From: Bilow	Respond to of 164687

Hi jawd; I agree that AMZN is still a concept stock, and consequently it is likely to be able to avoid fundamental considerations for a longer period than could IOM. PRST is a great example of a high flying concept stock, and it flew for an amazing length of time. My guess is that AMZN lasts until it shows its first real slow down in quarterly sales. (I.e. growth of less than 5% quarter over quarter.) Right now, my guess is that this is 24 months away. I took a breather Friday, but on Thursday, the dominant force in the market was ISLD, which showed up with incredible size and depth. I would suggest playing AMZN only with an ISLD book showing the bid structure inside ISLD (i.e. Datek), rather than the Nasdaq level-2 structure. I am going to lay off the stock until it returns to low volume, (presumably declines) and then has a volume increase. -- Carl P.S. That was a great Galbraith interview, whoever posted it....