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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (20938)	6/27/1998 7:29:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

GM: Great charts! 1. from the article: "The point of this exercise is to show the peaks and valleys of TAP bookings closely track the direction of stock prices." I'm looking at the graphs, and that's not what I see, at least not entirely. TAP=back-end (and front-end also) booking troughs correlate closely with stock troughs. But the peaks of the bookings (again, for both front and back-end) happen a long time after the stock peaks. Lagging indicators aren't usefull. 2. The back-end booking curve seems smoother than the front-end curve, and therefore more reliable. A single month-to-month increase in back-end bookings may be considered a buy signal. Two months (in front or back-end) would confirm it. And at that point, the stocks are only slightly off their troughs. 3. Shouldn't the bookings curve be shifted over one month to the right? In June, investors are deciding what June stock prices will be (by buying and selling), but they don't have June data on bookings yet. They are acting on May data, the latest available. 4. Interesting that he does not use the BTB. I guess he considers bookings more usefull. 5. Interesting also that the false rally we had in the stocks this spring was not confirmed by an uptick in bookings. Also, the uptick in front-end bookings for May was not confirmed by an uptick in back-end bookings. 6. He agreas with my bearish short-term outlook.