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To: John Lacelle who wrote (13867)	6/27/1998 7:27:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116796

China's Surging Trade Surplus Not Seen Threatening U.S. Economy China's trade surplus is on track to become the largest of any U.S. trading partner, yet President Bill Clinton isn't making narrowing that gap a major focus of his nine-day trip to China. That's because the U.S.-China trade imbalance, projected to rise as much as 30 percent this year to $65 billion, does little significant damage to the U.S. economy, analysts and industry groups said. In contrast, Japan's rising trade surplus in recent years drove many consumer electronics companies out of business and posed a threat to U.S. auto and chipmakers, they said. Dollar Seen Gaining vs Yen Amid Skepticism About Japanese Banks The dollar is seen climbing against the yen and the German mark next week amid skepticism Japan will move quickly to resolve its banking woes and on concern that a Russian financial crisis will hurt the German currency. The dollar rose 3.75 percent this week to 142.15 yen and climbed 1.2 percent to 1.8097 marks. Japan's ''tankan'' business survey and May unemployment figures next week are expected to reinforce Japan's gloomy economic prospects and weigh on the yen, traders said. bloomberg.com

To: John Lacelle who wrote (13867)	6/27/1998 10:07:00 PM
From: PaulM	Respond to of 116796

Thanks John. I'm also much more pessimistic than others on this thread. What I see coming is a rash of currency devaluations in weaker economies leading to a systemic credit collapse in the stronger economies. Goldbugs on this thread underestimate the possibility of a all out deflationary spiral, leading to some more forced Au dishoarding. The way I see it: 1. Gold may or may not have put in a bottom in Jan. But if it hasn't put in a bottom yet, it soon will. 2. Silver probably put in a bottom in 94, when it was 95% lower than it s early 80's high. It is now in a long term bull market. 3. Cash (in the form of US$)--short term debt instruments-- looks to enter a bull market, for a short time anyway. 4. Everything else--from treasuries, to U.S. stocks to Asian stocks--will likely get pummeled within a couple of years. 5. In 3 to 4 years, after a tremednous amount of debt has been liquidated, its time to dump cash. For more precious metals. Maybe real estate?