To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (46975 ) 6/28/1998 12:04:00 PM From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58727
Dr Ed Yardeni's siteyardeni.com ------------------------------------------------------------------- To: +MonsieurGonzo (3140 ) From: +Berney Sunday, Jun 28 1998 3:36AM ET Reply # of 3142 A Late Night BAMBI Commentary No, not that Bambi; my BAMBI. First, the current observations of the week that was. BAMBI is still a bearish 16 to 14, but that is a dramatic improvement over the previous week. 14 of the DJIA stocks beat the Index and I consider that modestly bullish. More importantly, we had four bullish signals (JNJ, PG, MO, and AXP). These are the first bullish signals signals since April 24 and the most since mid-Feb. There was one bearish signal (DD); however, having had 14 in the last 4 weeks, this is a positive sign. Since BAMBI takes some effort to maintain, I reviewed in detail the prior 21 weeks from 1/30 to 6/19. I wanted to see if there was any reasonable correlation between the classification and subsequent performance (i.e., against the S&P 500 Index). There were 21 weeks involved; thus, 630 chances for a DJIA stock to beat the Index in a given week (21 wks x 30 stocks). The DJIA stocks rose to the occasion 308 times, or 49%. Time to get a dart board? Let's see how the MACD classification affected the outcome: MACD TYPE PERCENT 1 86 2 58 3 32 4 19 5 37 6 70 I conclude that it is worth the effort. I could go into the issues more, but let me just leave you with a couple of interesting tidbits. First, there was no occasion in the past (no guarantee for future results) where the S&P Index was negative in the week following any bullish signals by DJIA stocks (read the first paragraph again). More interesting, in the weeks the Index was positive, DJIA stocks only beat the Index 39% of time. While in the weeks in which the Index was negative, the DJIA stocks beat the Index 81% of the time. I did not expect this conclusion; however, it brought home what running for cover really means. Hope you enjoy, as I'm summarizing about 10 hours of effort. As I probably stated before, I got this really bad habit of asking myself a question for which the answer takes a lot of effort. BWDIK Berney ----------------------------------------------------------------------- I have a sure fire cure for you if your insurance company wont pay for Viagra Forget those $10 Viagra pills or the injection from VIVUS...get a little mood music Take a listen to the music on my profile if Mea Culpa doesnt do it....trust me "Sadeness" or "Principles of Lust" will do it....maybe even for ole' hick Nemer "Bolero" Gramps it seems I am having an influence on their record sales ;-)))))(ooops what's a "record"???) Zena, the Enigma Cult Leader