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To: Daniel Kahn who wrote (59009)6/28/1998 12:54:00 AM
From: Paul Engel  Respond to of 186894
 
Daniel - Altera/Xilinx

Altera, and presumably Xilinx, have spent the better part of the 1990s trying to increase their market share in Japan to 20 or 25% of total sales. ROW sales - most of the S.E. Asia - were about 5 or 7 %.

Thus, 30% or more of their business was concentrated in Japan and Asia and as that part of the world sinks into a deep recession, their business growth plans were severely "Attenuated".

Moreover, their European business goes into a coma during the summer months - since Europe goes into a vacation coma - and the near-term future looks bleak.

Further, as both Xilinx and Altera sell a lot of chips into the Datacomm and Telecomm markets, the MERGERS and CONSOLIDATION within these industries inevitably leads to cancelled projects, delayed programs, etc.

So, rough sledding ahead for these two.

Once (whenever that is) the Asian slump subsides, business should pick up rather fast. But I won't begin to predict when that will happen.

But when it does, Altera and Xilinx will resume their growth. The technology advancements - gate density, cost reductions, speed improvements - all bring more value to their customers - and potential customers.

The stock prices for these two - Altera especially - have been hammered down severely, so I suspect all these developments are factored in to their valuations. Hopefully, there will only be upside from here.

Paul