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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zsteve who wrote (20943)	6/28/1998 2:51:00 AM
From: zsteve	Respond to of 70976

More: >>>>......Integrated Silicon Solution. Jimmy Lee, the founder, had worked at Hewlett....... I just called Jimmy. Asked about the second quarter. He said, "I am sorry to tell you, but revenues are going to be back down in the mid- to high 30s and we are going to be slightly below break-even. Nothing I can do about it. We are beating the competition on leading-edge SRAM. But demand's down." ....Cohu ....back at 25. The second quarter was not bad. Gross margins will be hurt by a new equipment launch. But when I talked to the finance VP out there, he said, "My backlog has died. I don't know what's coming on in the third quarter. We don't have an order book now." ......Novellus, but down 30 points from its peak this year. Think about it. Interestingly, a lot of these companies are selling below book. But it is too early to buy them; there's no earning power. ......... But again, no earnings. In the technology sector, if you have a two- or three-year horizon, you will do extremely well in those sorts of names. But in the short term, there'll be pain. Q: LSI, you said, is different? A: Yes, .......This stock, which I recommended in January, is a giveaway at 23. It is one of the few tech stocks that's up in a down market this month. Word has gotten out that their earning power is holding up. Q: Have you found another like that? A: One. It has zero content on the PC. Still profitable. It's here on Route 128. Altron. ALRN is the ticker; 10 5/8 today, ....... .........

To: zsteve who wrote (20943)	6/28/1998 4:08:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 70976

Re: "He said it was getting the supply/demand balance in DRAMs into equilibrium -- and we are a long way from there. <<<<<<<" Yes, this is important as I have tried to stress with my recent posts. Some of the previous downturns in memory chip business occurred in 1980, 1984 and 1989. After each slump, a recovery came when manufacturers cut back production leading to shortages and price hikes. The good news is that there are the beginnings of this type of movement in the market as I have cited; the bad news is that this will take time and nobody knows how long it will take ultimately. Another side of the equation is the the development of bloatware that requires more DRAM. And another side of the equation could be cost reduction in the development of DRAM. Like Bagley said. There is somebody out there who will be able to point to something he or she had said that explained and predicted the extent of the extent of the DRAM problem. But unfortunately we do not know who that person is today and we will not know who that person is until after the fact.