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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (3143)6/28/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: Berney  Respond to of 11051
 
Lisa,

Please again remember that this is a work in progress and 21 weeks of data does not a system make. Frankly, at this point I only consider it to be interesting trivia. But, as discussed on the BK thread, the key to the market is IMHO to watch the Big Boyz.

However, there was a 100% correlation. I compute the average Index performance for the 21 weeks to be .7%. In the week following in which at least 1 DJIA gave a bullish signal, the average was 1.4%. Of course, an average is just the worst of the best and the best of the worst. The range was .6% to 3.3%.

I've stated that I believe we will see a retest of 1120. So, I don't try to pick weekly highs and lows (I'll leave that to the BK game champ). I just try to pick up the trends. I just see it turning in a positive direction for the Big Boyz.

I created BAMBI in late January when I was seeing a lot of negative comments that the Jan rally rally was just a bull trap. It just didn't correlate to what I was looking at. Yes, Mr. Market was over-valued in Jan, and yes Mr. Market is over-valued today. Mr. Market clearly does not care what we think of its value.

We have had only 2 weeks since 3/6 that any DJIA stocks gave a bullish signal (4/10, IBM and 4/24 DIS and HWP). During this period, most DJIA stocks have gone through the normal cycle and are now starting to turn bullish. Frankly, as much as I follow this, I cannot imagine why GE and MRK (for example) have not issued bullish signals. But, a whole bunch are on the edge, and barring some unexpected news event (such as shafted the telecom stocks this past week), the cycle will progress on schedule.

Finally, I'm not ready to make any statement on the difference between 1 DJIA stocks giving a bullish signal and a bunch of them doing it. I'll be watching this issue.

As Always, BWDIK

Berney