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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (21059)	6/28/1998 3:07:00 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bonnie, you and I have been discussing brokerages for quite some time. I'd forgotten about that. As to your aversion to the Big Boyz. No problem as a basic kind of FA guy, I also know where the value is. I also recognize that my well-chosen small value stocks have killed me in the past. IMHO, the influence of mutual funds in general is greatly exagerated (probably by the funds). Mutual funds only own about 10% of the equities. I've come to believe that they are not the real movers and shakers in this market. One I first got into this about 4 years ago, I big-time examined mutual funds. One of things I did was to examine mutual fund performance in 34 categories over 1, 3, 5, 10, and 15 years. I developed what I called a success ratio (should have called it a failure ratio). The point here being, that when I compared REIT's to the S&P 500 Index, I got a success ratio of almost zero. BTW, same with utilities. So, I moved them to the fixed income category. There they score very favorably against the benchmark. More musing from the swamp. As always, BWDIK. Berney

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (21059)	6/28/1998 8:36:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bonnie; From what I found on the S&P it re-weights dynamically on the market cap about every day base on a three day average, or something like that. Any way it changes focus fairly fast, if a certain sector takes off or gets hit. ------------------------------- Here is the question I want to ask you, looking at Dr. Ed's stuff, consumer spending is down..so just how is it that the retail sector is blowing most other sectors away ? The huge run up in retail sector stocks, don't jive with the fall off in consumer spending. What does the market wait on, the actual earnings reports to catch up ? It looks that way, or oil stocks would have tanked before now. BTW if money is flowing into REITS, it must not be the mortgage type man they are taking hit after hit. biz.yahoo.com I got hit twice with TMA , heavens CMO tanked 24% Friday, INV took a hit, if they are mortgage related the narrow spreads, lower interest and pre payments are chewing them up & spitting them out..book value is dropping like a rock, they are trying to switch to short term stuff and having to write off much of the longer term at a loss. It's getting killed in that sector right now. So if it's REITS it better not be the mortgage type ones. About the time they restructure watch interest rates go back up. I was tempted, to bottom fish untill I saw them restructuring their loans, no way I want into that mess, looks like they got caught on the wrong side of the curve, and with this market will be on the wrongside again in 6 to 9 months. I did bite on TMA, but got back out and want no more. Jim