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To: Manfred who wrote (3623)6/28/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: Manfred  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5736
 
Asensio's calls, part II

Cellular Vision (CVUS)

On February 18, 1997, Asenio issued a strong buy recommendation on CVUS. Here is an extract from his report:

" We believe that CVUS' stock price does not reflect the value of the new FCC services rules. In fact, we believe that the FCC uncertainty has caused investor apprehension and that CVUS' existing LMDS businesses are already worth over twice the current stock price before any added value created by the new FCC rules. According to the FCC, LMDS has a "unique opportunity" to provide competition to the incumbent local exchange carriers ("LECs"). The New York PMSA is the largest telecommunications market in the world. Therefore, we believe that the new LMDS service rules will add a very significant amount of value to CVUS. We believe the national LMDS auctions will attract many large bidders, including long distance companies who can use LMDS to eliminate LEC access fees.

We believe that the comparable auction value for CVUS' license will exceed $350 million or $21 per share. Furthermore, we believe that the FCC announcement, the auctions, and new service offerings will cause CVUS' stock to fully realize its underlying value."


According to my graph, the stock must have been at around 8-9 at that time. It went shortly above 10 and then continuously dropped. On Friday, CVUS closed at 7/8.

Six weeks later, on March 31, 1997, Asensio issued a second report. Here an extract:

" We firmly believe that CVUS shares are grossly undervalued and will soon trade at $25 per share or more. We strongly recommend purchase of CVUS shares."

The stock never rallied. On the contrary, after a sideway movement, it broke out to the downside. On Friday, as you know, CVUS closed at 7/8.

But Asensio insists. Nearly a full year later, on February 23, 1998, he issued his third and - untill now - last report on CVUS. An extract:

"We believe that CVUS' New York City LMDS market is by far the most valuable in the country. At $6 per share, CVUS' license has an approximate indicated $84 million market value. This equals approximately $10 per POP. This is for a license that allows
high capacity wireless transmission of television, heavy data traffic and telephone services in New York City. We estimate its immediate worth at between $20 to $25 per POP. We believe the license's comparable value will provide CVUS with sufficient collateral to build-out the system. The construction delays will allow the company to use better, less expensive equipment than currently available. We believe that the company is worth over $10 per share short term and much higher after LMDS develops into a national industry. However, as experience has shown, nothing will be immediate or easy with a new technology and industry."


And as we know, the stock closed this Friday at... 7/8.

Manfred