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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (21078)	6/29/1998 6:33:00 AM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

B.B,,, Those charts are telling you that those yields haven't got long for this world.... russell

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (21078)	6/29/1998 10:34:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Yes Bonnie; right now the yields do look good, <g> But the yields are not much help to people who had these things 3 to 4 months ago. And they could be cutting dividends in the near future too. If you lose 30% of your capital on a down swing it takes a long long time to get it back via even a good dividend. And most of these have lost 30% or more..( it takes 42.8% gain in whats left to get back that 30% they lost ) The experts seem to disagree with what is going on the mortgage resale market. There are so many new specialized type loans that it's very complicated for even the ones who specialize in them, and competition is twisting and turning these instruments in a mad fight to beat the next guy. They look tempting but then so did ASIA not long ago. I'm not satisfied they have put in a bottom yet. At any rate these trust are mostly valued one way or another on the future value of real estate, and they are leveraged in a way that don't catch the eye, that's why they have fallen so fast. If a general slow down turn comes, and for sale signs go up these things can take another hit, they should get a pop fairly soon, but long term I don't like them, and so many people have already been burned it may take some doing to get momentum going again. But really CMO looks like it got oversold, in fact most of them do. I don't know how to do any FA on them, so I'll try grouping them as a sector and wait to see the sector put in a bottom and start to lift, then use a stratigy that works on the divergence between them. quicken.excite.com Take a look at what they lost percentage wise, and they are all still pointing down. I like to catch falling knives better than calling tops, but I do not understand these things at all, and would at least like to see the bounce, instead of just an exodus. Jim PS quicken.excite.com looks as bad s ASIA.