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To: Tweaker who wrote (49256)6/29/1998 10:28:00 AM
From: jbn3  Respond to of 176387
 
Delays abroad may hurt millenium bug efforts

By Andrew Mollison American-Statesman Washington Staff

FAIRFAX, Va. -- American prosperity could be eroded by slow progress in many other countries toward updating millions of computer systems and billions of microchips to recognize the year 2000.
The damage "would be about the same size as the expected economic damage from the turmoil in East Asia," Maria Livanos Gattaui, secretary general of the International Chamber of Commerce, said last week.
"How do we inject a sense of urgency without generating doomsday hysteria?" she asked 1,700 senior high-tech and government leaders at the World congress on Information Technology here Wednesday.
The delegates from 93 countries spent hours comparing notes on the political and technical changes needed to fix or replace millions of pre-1997 computers and software programs and billions of embedded chips in electronic devices that won't know whether the two-digit data "00" stands for 1900 or 2000.
"Irrespective of whether it is a problem of $1 billion or $1 trillion, it is a problem that is going to affect every country," said Ahmad Kamal, a Pakistani diplomat who heads the United Nations working group on information technology. "Due tot he mere existence of information-technology networks, no country is in an isolated pocket that can be hermetically sealed."
In the United States, government and corporate decision-makers began focusing seriously on the problem in 1995. Prosperous European and Asian countries followed up within the next two years. A survey this year of governments in 158 of the the world's poorest countries showed that more than half had done nothing -- mistakenly thinking the so-called Y2K bug was a "rich nations' problem" that wouldn't affect their phones, power grids, shipping or fuel supplies.
"It's kind of late right now for many of us," said diplomat Carl Frances of Trinidad and Tobago. "The World Bank is using British grants to sponsor 20 meetings, including one in Jamaica for Caribbean countries within a few weeks, to see a presentation an Italian firm has developed on what to do."
"In China, we do not have today the manpower with the precise skills needed to do this work," said Junjie Li, a professor working for a joint state-private software firm in Qingdao. Imported software riddled with Year2000 bugs is used to run Chinese computers that handle everything from airports and military missiles to the payrolls at government-owned factories.
"We are outsourcing to Americans for the fixes," Junjie said.
Taiwan's government recently decided to give tax credits to businesses that make deadlines and punish government officials who miss them, said Kuo Yun, the former general who heads Taiwan's official Year 2000 efforts.
Meanwhile some American firms are subcontracting Year 2000 work to India, where lower wages and longer hours cut the cost by three-fourths.
"We are running three shifts a day right now, dong a lot of work right from Calcutta for customers in the United States," said Tapan Mukerji, director of a systems integration firm. "Of course, we have our own Year 2000 problems, though not as intense or extensive as in the United States."
"I wouldn't put it in the category of 'We're satisfied and we don't worry about it,' or, you know, 'We're hysterical and our hair is on fire.' It's somewhere in the middle," said Michael Dell, chairman and chief executive officer of Dell Computer Corp. His Round Rock-based company depends on the Internet, phone calls, faxes and trips to coordinate operations in 42 countries.

Taken from Austin American-Statesman, Monday, June 29, 1998, page C2

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