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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (6084)	6/29/1998 11:22:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 10921

Here's the link to the WSJ article mentioned in my last note. The Journal online is a pay service, with a 2-week free trial. interactive.wsj.com Katherine

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (6084)	6/29/1998 11:26:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 10921

Katherine, I am going to dust off the dart board in my garage. Give me a few minutes and I will give you the absolute most reliable numbers on LTCB. On the serious side, they have formed committee from both banks to look into this merger. Interesting that they are talking turkey after the announcement but not before???? The new target date is for a September completion instead of the original April date. This should at least speed up the transparency issue. In the mean time, I still like to hear what this bridge bank is going to do? It makes absolutely no sense to keep the banks with negative net worth open. However, shareholders will be totally wiped out if the banks are closed. Who are these shareholders? Are some a little too powerful to upset? Wasn't some bank executive murdered a few years ago? How many more hotel room group siyonaras (sp) will there be if the sh*t hits the fan? Ramsey

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (6084)	6/29/1998 11:27:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Respond to of 10921

Great exchange here on Japan. Thanks to everyone who has participated. As I see it. 1. It doesn't really matter if the losses are $300 billion or $600 billion, whatever it takes the amount will be raised and the banking system will be bailed out. It's like if the doctor told you that you needed some very expensive medicine to stay alive. Do you stop and ask yourself if the price is worth it? Of course not, JAPAN WILL BAIL OUT THE BANKS. To do otherwise would be economic death. This is good news because Japan's economy has been starved for years without a truly functioning banking system. 2. Who will pay for the bailout? The taxpayers of course! Just as we did in the United States. Will it be painful? Yes, but continuing with a banking system that really doesn't fulfill its' lending function is vastly more painful in the long run. 3. Will the bailout precipitate a world wide financial crisis? Not very likely. Scenarios of massive dumping of US debt securities on the market are more at place in a Paul Erdman novel than they are in reality. Even if the Japanese government chose to fund their bank bailout with sales of US Treasuries, (which they won't) they would do it over the course of years and it would likely have a minimal impact on debt markets. The markets are just too huge for this to be much of a factor. $50 billion worth of treasury bond contracts trade every day on the Chicago Board of Trade. 4. The risk is STILL that Japan does nothing and continues to sweep their problems under the rug. This leaves the United States alone to act as the demand engine for the entire world, a role they cannot keep forever. Japan still has cards to play to stimulate demand in their economy. A good place to start is repealing the consumption tax of last year. If Japan and the rest of Asia can stimulate their economies without these "beggar thy neighbor" currency wars then it would be the best of news for the world economy.