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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (1328)	6/29/1998 3:31:00 PM
From: Ray Hughes	Respond to of 1911

Hi Susan , It seems I'm always a little early. Hence, my assessment that we're a couple of years overdue probably means that we're a year away. There is still much investable funds being generated in pension savings. Until this flow of funds slows, much money is still being invested and concentrated in big, liquid, Dow stocks precisely because pension fund managers are running scared of liquidity problems when the crack comes. Hence, the trigger would be the slowing of pension savings and that would revolve around a US economic slowdown as Asian problems hit US earnings. Thats just beginning. The strong effect is months away. Here in western Canada, a region much dependent on exports of materials to Asia, the slowdown has been stunningly sudden. Vastly fewer ships in the harbour awaiting loading of wood, sulphur, etc. First time in ten years that I've seen the container ship loading dock empty for days on end. News reports show longshoremen worked 18% fewer hours in May vs April. Any wonder CanDollar tanked? Asian purchases of Canadian goods, wood, energy, fish, hence buying of CDollar, tanked. Smart money selling real estate that sharply appreciated in Asian currency terms are returning currency to buy depreciated Asian assets (or shore up failing businesses) resulting in selling of C$.. Canadians, who purchase much US goods, now can't at current C$/US$ rates. Border states hurt first, then overall US exports to Canada will plunge. US companies dependent on exporting will suffer in the coming year. Earnings will reflect. The coming 6 - 12 months in the US could see portfolio managers opt to go strongly into cash and out of equities. RH