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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (49373)	6/29/1998 4:27:00 PM
From: TideGlider	Respond to of 61433

Hmmm? Seems as they are positioning in this stock early. When the managers take their new positions tomorrow we could have a very big day. That is of course gauged by the interest today. According to G. McSherry most will take their positions in the new index additions tomorrow. He said volume could be very high. I believe he said over a billion on NYSE alone. Just what I gleaned from his snippets from the NYSE floor today. TG

To: The Phoenix who wrote (49373)	6/29/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Stimpson J. Cat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Interesting point of view. ATM switching sales will surpass layer 3 routing/switching sales and telephone switching sales. I don't think most industry pundits would agree with this assessment. Cisco does a large percentage of their business with the carriers today - and one should expect even more in the future. You speak of immunity to economic softness. Cisco is arguably THE MOST immune networker on out there. I'll always go the opposite of the industry pundits. They are invariably wrong when they take a stance. That's why most of them have vague opinions. They sell to both enterprise and carriers (ASND is carrier only) Yes, but my point was that carrier sales are relatively invulnerable to recessions while corporate isn't. And Cisco's main revenue is from corporate. Cisco succeeds in encroaching on ASND's bread and butter (ATM switching) where will ASND go? Good question. Another would be if ASND ATM/MPLS succeeds in encroaching in Cisco's carrier routing networks, where will CSCO recover the revenue from? On the other hand, if Cisco get's hit by competition on one its product lines they have the ability to weather the storm because they are much more broadly positioned. Yes, Cisco is broadly positioned. But they are heavy in the suspect areas and light in the stable areas.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (49373)	6/29/1998 11:11:00 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 61433

Cisco does a large percentage of their business with the carriers today - and one should expect even more in the future. Large today? What's that, maybe 10%? More in the future? OK, I'll give you that one. They sell to both enterprise and carriers (ASND is carrier only) I wonder, if on a percentage basis, ASND sells as much to the enterprise, as CSCO does to carriers? Maybe someone with real data can set the record straight. They sell switched, routers, cable head-ends, DSL headends, voice gateway platforms, multiservice access products (ATM, Frame, or IP). etc. etc.. Yes, they do have a bulging sales brochure. But how much revenue is that cable/DSL/etc. gear generating? I'd guess <1% of total. And routers and LAN switches? I'd guess 70% of total. ATM and RAC, maybe 20% of total. And IOS licensing, the rest. ASND only sells ATM/FR switches...with a dabbling of access products. Dabbling in access? Yes, they "dabble" as the #1 provider of RAC. And don't forget, all those switches, with the exception of the 550 core switch, are true multiservice platforms, which are field proven. If Cisco succeeds in encroaching on ASND's bread and butter (ATM switching) where will ASND go? I believe this is the concern many investors have. CSCO will be just another competitor, of which there are many. I think ASND is more focused on NT, NN, FORE, and LU than CSCO. On the other hand, if Cisco get's hit by competition on one its product lines they have the ability to weather the storm because they are much more broadly positioned. CSCO has a near monopoly on traditional routers, and a very strong LAN switching portfolio. IMO, they will continue to do well because of this base, not because of some perceived balanced revenue generating product portfolio. If CSCO misses a quarter, they will be punished just a severely as ASND, perhaps more so. One could easily argue, if router sales slow severely for just a single month, CSCO will be a 50-60 dollar stock very quickly. BTW, I'm very long on CSCO, and am currently much more worried about them short-term, than ASND. Gary