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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew Brockway who wrote (20981)	6/29/1998 5:14:00 PM
From: Barry Cartwright	Respond to of 70976

But interest rates are low and may even go a little lower. History still on stocks side.

To: Andrew Brockway who wrote (20981)	6/29/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 70976

Andrew, I banged this drum before. Using Zacks as a source for earning estimates, I observed, though unscientifically, that all the revisions so far are for this year. If you use a PEG type strategy, it gives you a potentially misleading impression that 1998 is a just a bad year and it will be growth as before for 1999. This is making a huge implied assumption that Asia is going to totally recover by next year, or business will come from somewhere else to offset shortfalls. This is not a bet that I am willing to take. Chuck Hill of First Call had been interviewed a number of times on CNBC. Each time his message is loud and clear. Companies are meeting or beating estimates which had been drastically reduced. Those that are not meeting these new estimates are getting killed. The most recent example is probably COMS. Back in April, Zacks estimate for this past qtr was $.43. It was reduced to $.18 which they just met. The company made it sound like they did such a fantastic job when in fact, I don't see much positive on their report. I don't see any chance that AMAT's 1999 estimates will not be revised down further. All current analysis are bogus if these estimates are relied upon. As we have beaten the dead horse enough, Asia is not going to be in good shape for years to come, regardless of what Japan decides to do. Risk far outweighs reward as far as I am concern. Then again, what do I know? MSFT hits new high again. Even GM, with strike damage estimated at $1 billion already, went up today. If anyone knows when AMAT is going to hit bottom, please let me know. Ramsey