As to value all I know is what they release
biz.yahoo.com
that is supposed to be up to date.
I'm not saying there is no risk, what they own is paper , this is
almost like trading currency, the paper they hold is like a
commodity that's bought and sold in the secondary market.
The value of the all paper they now hold has dropped, about
17% from what they had in March. The stock has dropped much more
than that. They have restructured, will it work ? I don't know.
But I'm buying at one hell of a discount, & hoping they got it
right. These people are specialist and they had it wrong, OK how
is some one like me or you going to know ahead if they got it
right this time. There is no way to know, or for some anal-cyst
to know.
Any outsider doing the FA on something like this is full of crap,
if they are that good they need to get in the business.
-------------------------
I'm more a stratigist when it comes to trading. But I do look at
book value, debt , and sales, if your using earnings you doing
what the herd is doing, and that's priced in or just plain crap
any way.
As for playing the stock, well I know the market more often than
not over reacts to both good and bad news. This one has gotten
hammered really hard, but that won't change the internals ,
if it turns out they got it right this time 6 months from now
they will up the dividend and the stock will double. If they
got it wrong it could lose half it's value again.
I'm just betting less than $9 it goes up to double, if it drops
I lose half my bet. Odds turn into like betting a dog that if it
wins pays 4 to 1, against what I'm now willing to risk.
If it drops to 4.50 I may double my bet.
---------------------
So far this week I'v been lucky, I don't have any blue chips,
just beat up, hammered down, dirt bags the funds are scared to
play, but in spite of my ragged out dogs, this has been one week
none of my picks are below what I paid for them. Every holding
I got is either up or even. I'm not real deep into anything,
or very many and I still got some dry powder.
--------------------
holding CYM , FUND, KIF, OTCM, & CMO, I sold DAY, USA , VGZ, for
small profits, lost money on TMA ( but it's sold ) and MSFT puts
but sold them fast , wound up with a small net gain on the
total of the sells, and now have a small paper gain on the
holdings, in tolling them for the last two weeks I've come out ahead of any of the mutual funds I'm tracking, and I know I have a better
cash position percentage wise. It's hard for me to find the kind
of stuff I like in this market.
I might buy into VGSIX tomorrow, she has been dragging but looks
like she could run, still studying on it.
Bonnies RWT is looking tempting too.
Retailers are having their day in the sun, but with consumer
spending down that's one train that may be getting ready to
teach a few people not to jump on after it's left the
station.
You should see the carnage going on in the office supply sector
every time one of them reports , IKN, DANKY, OFISD, now something
is wrong , and it's going to bleed over too. Odd that CNBC, or
the mostly fool is not blabing about taht, I guess they will wait
till the rest of them crash and burn.
Jim
|
