To: DMaA who wrote (16509 ) 6/30/1998 10:56:00 AM From: Moonray Respond to of 22053
Fed seen keeping U.S. rates steady 07:19 a.m. Jun 30, 1998 Eastern WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Concerns over Asia's economic troubles will likely dominate a two-day Federal Reserve meeting that kicks off Tuesday, with analysts widely expecting the central bank to keep U.S. interest rates steady. Fed officials earlier this year had discussed possibly raising interest rates to cool potential inflationary pressures in the tight labor markets but some of the worries have faded amid signs the economy is slowing. Moreover, analysts said boosting rates at this time would be far too risky given Asia's fragile state. Higher U.S. rates would tend to exacerbate the region's problems by drawing capital away from Asia and into dollar-based securities. ''It isn't going to be a contentious meeting,'' said former Fed governor Lyle Gramley. ''In light of the severity of the Asian crisis, the Fed wouldn't be likely to tighten monetary policy unless there was an urgent need to do so.'' Gramley, now a consulting economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association, said such urgency did not exist. The Fed's policy-making arm, the Federal Open Market Committee, is scheduled to start its meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday. Any announcement on interest rates would be expected Wednesday afternoon after the meeting wraps up. The meeting will include the usual discussion of interest rates but Fed officials will also prepare economic forecasts and money-supply targets for Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's semi-annual ''Humphrey-Hawkins'' address to Congress. That report to lawmakers is expected to take place in late July, although no date has been set. While a consensus on interest rates may not be difficult to achieve, forecasting the economy at this stage could prove difficult amid so many uncertainties about Asia. U.S. gross domestic product surged 5.4 percent in the first three months of this year but economists said that torrid rate of growth was fueled in part by aggressive inventory building by businesses. That could portend weaker growth in future quarters as companies try to work off accumulated inventories. The economy is also starting to feel the effects from Asia's crisis, which has bloated the trade deficit and hurt some manufacturers. Although many areas of the domestic U.S. economy, such as housing are thriving, a number of economists believe Asia could exert a much bigger drag on growth in coming months. Also, a strike that has shut down much of General Motors Corp's North American operation will likely take a chunk out of growth in the second quarter. ''You can run some scenarios where the second-quarter growth rate looks really ugly,'' said Joel Naroff, Philadelphia-based economist at First Union Corp.. In light of the possibility for such an economic slowing, Naroff predicted that Greenspan might tend to play down the inflation concerns when he delivers his much-awaited Humphrey-Hawkins address. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication and redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. o~~~ O