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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip Anderson who wrote (4911)	6/30/1998 1:26:00 PM
From: Andrew Kruh	Respond to of 16960

"By owning TDFX, _I_ am making a lot less money than I am supposed to. I feel part of the reason for this is management's inability to communicate their story to Wall Street effectively." I understand your point and was just joking a bit. Seriously though, I believe screening out ALL small caps which beat estimates by over 15% is too much of a generalization, particularly with small caps whose financial situation can improve dramatically with one contract or new product (or worsen with the loss of such). Even the best management teams can't foresee everything with businesses this small. I would look, when possible, at several past quarters, and see if there are also downside surprises, not just better than expected business. This may be a better indicator of bad institutional guidance. Good management will "guide" estimates lower well in advance of bad news, so that months later when they 'make' estimates its not so bad. FWIW, I too am feeling the bite on this one. I may have to guide my own estimates a little lower for FY98. :-( As for TDFX, I believe we will see right around estimates. The beginning of the quarter was probably better than expected off last Q's momentum, but "Pierre's Army" and other various rumors seem to be indicate a slowing late in the quarter. V2 may be reaching a saturation point, with anyone who has any clue whatsoever what it actually is already owning one. The conference call and any signs of OEM life for Banshee will be the telling story this quarter, IMO. Thanks for the great posts and information, -Andrew