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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Beltropolis Boy who wrote (2584)	6/30/1998 4:10:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3029

Interesting views from the Fools. "Daily Trouble". I expected to see them say they were wrong and the stock should have been sold. Instead, they give it a sheepish buy. Funny, they never did seem to get the point on why INVX traded down in the first place, and they still don't seem to understand the dangers going forward. To me, the issues going forward are: - Competition from Hutch, NHK, RDRT and others are cutting into market share. Be it great or small, competition will happen and this will cut into comparisons with last year when they had little competition. - Potentially shrinking numbers of heads and platters in coming drives. Especially true if INVX finds itself serving the lower end of the drive market as other connects win the a portion of the high end - Reduced margins as the whole chain is pressured. This is something INVX said wouldn't happen, but we've seen a big drop in margins. They say this is to keep HTI's over priced product from winning programs, but for whatever reason, it's still happening. In the whole story of Innovex, the Fool never discusses the question of what could be driving the purchases of new drives. They skim the issues and maintain the same warped attitude that kept them from advising people to sell in the 20's when these problems were becoming clear. The problems have not changed that I can see. I sound pretty bearish. Well, like Kurt said, we need to see a new program for HIF. Seagate can't carry the whole show. RDRT recently announced they would supply a 3.4 gig head to Maxtor. Maxtor hasn't really been mentioned much in the announcements so far. This could be a good win for Innovex. I'd also guess that WDC would be a buyer of the same RDRT heads. Question is how far along is RDRT with their own Flex on Suspension program? Can they cut INVX and Hutchinson out of this program? It's a shame that I get the impression INVX lost some good graces with Read Rite when they had a very public comment for Wall Street about RDRT loosing Quantum and how INVX would continue to supply the wires to the new head supplier. This may come back to bite them. In the end, Maxtor makes the choice. Motley Fool has an interesting prospective and they do have some good analysis skills even if they tend to under play knowledge of the group. It could well be that INVX is a value play from here, but I think it will depend on some competitive win for HIF. Without that, they've lost their growth element in the near to mid term. Just my opinions. Regards, Mark

To: Beltropolis Boy who wrote (2584)	7/1/1998 1:33:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 3029

Chris, Good article. Look too to the top flight ECM's-all pummeled just like the DD sector. Many excellent ECM's are selling at or near book value now- hard to believe. As to Innovex, I follow one ECM closely HDCO, and I was just reading about their efforts to gear up for flip chip usage- aiming at the end of 1998. Since INVX would be a final assembler of flip chip components as I understand it, then it's good news to see the producers of those components that will need assembly now moving manufacturing capacity towards flip chip component production.... Also want another Company with a finger in the flip chip pie that you would otherwise not expect? Look at KLIC- known as a leading front end semiconductor equipment manufacturer, it has a 50% intrest along with Delco Electonics in the Flip Chip Technologies venture in Phoenix, AZ...... Sincerely, Doug F.