Hello everyone. I am starting to get back on track. Here are posts from AOL from the last few days, and lots of Readware for those who miss my regular Readware referals....
=========================
Subject: Re: Zenit delayed again
Date: Sun, Jun 28, 1998 01:24 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998062805242400.BAA11933@ladder01.news.aol.com>
I did not say Zenit had 10 successful launches, and that the last one failed. I wrote that there have been either 28 or 32 launches, and 5 to 7 failures, depending on whose rendition you accepted. Given that the insurance consortium validated 5 out of 28 fails, it was my thought that that is the number one should take.
Look at the Zenit information after 8 July. I wrote before that watching this every day is going to drive people nuts.
Subject: Re: ORBCOMM CORP.
Date: Mon, Jun 29, 1998 11:02 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998062915022700.LAA27170@ladder03.news.aol.com>
ViaSat has a superior satcom "signal switching" technology (called Starwire DAMA [demand assigned multiple access] that no other franchise has. That is what makes it a unique company-- when the US Military buys satcom equipment, the indications are that the system is better than what they have. And the military, quite justifiably, has the top-of-the-line satellite technology. They usually get it before anyone else does. The US ACTS program
is a case in point. The military gave a very large contract last September to ViaSat for its DAMA.
ViaSat is not a "service provider", but instead is a hardware innovator on satcom "traffic economizing". I do not follow the company's fundamentals, but I do follow very closely their technology. Their Carlsbad campus has a number of very smart engineers.
Subject: Re: New Bulletin on Zenit Launch
Date: Mon, Jun 29, 1998 21:53 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998063001535900.VAA17082@ladder03.news.aol.com>
In the New York St. Regis Hotel Loral conference in mid June Bernard Schwartz had indicated a 15 August-30 August date for the Zenit 2. The piece from the Swedish Space News website is not news.
Subject: Re: Readware-old news-Zenit
Date: Tue, Jun 30, 1998 06:58 EDT
From: Ok2Launch
Message-id: <1998063010581300.GAA00483@ladder03.news.aol.com>
New news is anything a person hasn't heard yet. It seems to me that Mr. Schwartz is very candid with a select group of industry professionals, but dosen't see fit to keep his public shareholders informed as to what is going on. There have been virtually no news releases from either Loral or G* as to the status of the Zenit launches. Fortunately, we do have Readware to help us keep up to date, but this is
something that the company should be doing as well.
Subject: Re: Readware-old news-Zenit
Date: Tue, Jun 30, 1998 12:05 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998063016051500.MAA23213@ladder03.news.aol.com>
Unless some unknown occurs (like an earthquake, war, or death of all the engineers at the Cosmodrome), the Resurs/Thai/Israeli (microsats and satcoms) are launching 8 July off Zenit-2. The military launch should be some 28-31 days later. The G* launch should be about 24-28 August, give or take a day or two.
Allowing for successful launches (and I think they will all be within the "success" tolerance), the next G* launch off the Zenit-2 should be some 5-6 weeks later. We are now in mid-October. The next launch after that should be in December according to Space Systems Loral. Our pricing model on G* assumes two Zenit launches in 1998, and one in very early 1999 (early January). Our pricing model also stated that two successful G* Zenit launches gives you
$71/share ($35.5 on the split) by year-end 1998. We have never assumed three Zenits would launch in 1998-- we may be wrong-- three may launch, but we looked at early January 1999 as the final launch, with two in 1998. That brings the fleet to 44.
The Zenit-2 has been disassembled, and is now in reassembly. This is done in a vacuum clean room with almost all automated assemby. The only problem with the reconditioned Zenit was the remote sensor was malfunctioning. This could have (would have) put satcoms in a useless orbit. Now that this problem has been caught and rectified, sometime around 5 July system tests recommence on the reassembled Zenit. There is little reason to believe that testing
on the reassembled LV will not show that all systems are now in working order.
That leaves the question: was the remote sensor originally tested? Obviously, new personnel in that area have been brought in this time to make sure that the malfunction has been corrected.
As for Mr. Schwartz' comments at the St. Regis: Loral all along has said that the first Zenit would be in the 2nd qtr 1998, not 15 July, although we have all been using that as an "indication", myself included. I think people in the industry would have been surprized if the Zenit did launch G* on that date. It would have taken quite a bit of luck to get that date, but usually skill, not luck, is the final determinant of when a launch vehicle is
fixed.
Subject: Re: New Bulletin on Zenit Launch
Date: Tue, Jun 30, 1998 12:15 EDT
From: Park86
Message-id: <1998063016151500.MAA25897@ladder01.news.aol.com>
I agree. What is going on right now is a day trader's nightmare. Someone is buying lots of puts. A block 750 Dec 27 1/2's just went and they are in the money now. Someone is obviously betting that G* is not going to recover in the fall if I am reading this right. Smolky, what is your take on this? G* has had large vol of late with big blocks trading and despite that, it has held up reasonably well but, there have been some large
sellers. Now you have the large put buyers. I guess I would feel better if I knew what was driving these transactions.
Subject: Re: New Bulletin on Zenit Launch
Date: Tue, Jun 30, 1998 12:56 EDT
From: Valuer
Message-id: <1998063016562800.MAA28654@ladder03.news.aol.com>
Were they large put buyers, or large put sellers--that is the question. That is a potential hedge of only 75,000 GSTRF shares. That is not significant. Did you see a block of 75,000 shares cross today? Maybe it was a speculator who was certain G* would be over 27 1/2 by December and sold the puts to collect the bloated premium. You just never know.
Subject: Re: New Bulletin on Zenit Launch
Date: Tue, Jun 30, 1998 13:53 EDT
From: Park86
Message-id: <1998063017535600.NAA05606@ladder03.news.aol.com>
It was a 750 put contract block purchase and yesterday there was 1,000 contract block for the same contract was purchased. I agree it is probably no big deal.
Subject: Re: Readware-old news-Zenit
Date: Tue, Jun 30, 1998 15:37 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998063019375400.PAA17371@ladder03.news.aol.com>
I misstated one item before-- I meant to say 3rd qtr 1998 for Zenit, not 2nd qtr, |
