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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: space cadet who wrote (10746)	6/30/1998 9:11:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

>> 200 is a sure thing << Nothing is a sure thing. (Except death and taxes) >> I see it at 300-500 over next several months << I see you losing a lot of money if you are long and you believe that. You see YHOO having a market cap between $17-$30 billion in the next several months? With perhaps $150-170 million in sales? Your looking for a price to sales ratio of around 100-200? >> However, the day before and after holidays are almost always strong I remember reading somewhere. << True, the last trading day prior to major holidays has been an up day the majority of the time. The day after effect is known to work well on Thanksgiving and X-mas.

To: space cadet who wrote (10746)	6/30/1998 9:50:00 PM
From: larry	Respond to of 18691

Space Cadet, I have dumped MSFT July 100 call and will dump 105 call tomorrow. I see YHOO! hitting 200, but not more than that. IF a split is announced, it can definitely double from its current level. However, I don't trade internet issues any more. MY IDTC is on fire today. The issue has risen 30% in the last 3 weeks...My only DOG in my portfolio currently is DELL, right, the invincible DELL. How interesting. I will discuss the second tier players with you later. It's a good thing that summer rally has not hit the second and third tier players. I will take some position soon. larry!

To: space cadet who wrote (10746)	7/1/1998 12:41:00 PM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Hello Space Cadet: A newsletter, Mutual Fund Forecaster, runs a proprietary econometric model that has a seasonality trading feature for mutual funds. The latest indication was to switch from money funds to equities Monday, June 29 and back from equity funds to money funds by the close of July 8. They claim an above average batting average. The indication is for a basket of securities in a mutual fund, not for individual securities. I believe their claim of relatively high risk adjusted returns--they are in the market around 10% of the time with their seasonality, and capture something like 70% of the return on average if I recalled correctly. I have found no noticeable correlation between their predictions and my short positions. One could think their seasonality prediction would correlate with some of the market mania stocks. I am not aware of any though; nor have I looked for any. The idea would seem to have merit though. Best regards, m