Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael modeme who wrote (9266)	7/1/1998 12:19:00 AM
From: J. Conley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Michael, Good to know that someone like Takata is rec. the stock, and likes the products. No doubt he is fully aware of the A/R, inventory, and EBITA of the company the past couple quarters. The real question is how much is priced into the stock at these levels? Let's say they meet or exceed EPS this quarter but with slightly worse A/R and inventory numbers. What happens? I do not think the shorts have a lot to gain. I agree that short interest can help the stock bounce from any lower level. I've shorted stocks with much worse financials than MRVC and ended up with losses. Also, IMO 4Q 97 was a miss on operating earnings, and 1Q 98 was clouded by the acquisition and related charges. Everyone knows this. This is a tough stock to analyze because there appears to be legitimate reasons for almost every negative, and the stock price is very depressed. The EPS projections are irrelevant. No one really believes the current EPS projections or the stock would not be where it is. How many times have you seen insiders dump stock before a pending disastrous quarter. Insiders of this company are not selling, and they own a lot of shares. Why? Usually you see routine insider selling in this type of company; this company does not even appear to have people exercising options and flipping shares. If things are really negative, I would expect insiders to be selling the last three quarters. Also, why would a guy like Takata risk being terribly wrong on a truly bad company and stock. He is relatively early in his career and has something to lose by straying from the safety of consensus "analysis". jc