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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (19850)	7/1/1998 8:32:00 AM
From: Richard S. Schoenstadt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31646

CR, Let's grant for the moment that you are right about Tava. For what it's worth long term I think you are. Short term I think Tava's certain increase in revenues and earnings will mask that fact. Right now the market appears to be ignoring your concerns. In a rational market Tava should be valued at around 3 or 4 - probably even less. But it isn't. So when are people going to wake up and why? If they didn't sell beyond the low nines after last quarters disappointment and the stock shows strong support around here, why would they panic and sell off now? What event is going to convince them they are wrong. It seems to me that internet hype stocks have a great deal of resiliency. Look at Zitl. How many quarters of DECLINING revenues and INCREASING losses did it take to really sink the stock. And Zitl is still at 4 and something when it ought to be a penny stock. Even there you still have some true believers. If Zitl can be at 4 in the face of constant losses and decrease in revenue why is it unreasonable to believe that Tava can't hold at 9, when Tava is almost guaranteed to have rising earnings and revenues for the next 2 to 3 quarters. I don't agree with the long arguments that all this year 2k work is going to translate into enough (and the key is enough) core work to justify the current value of Tava stock, much less higher values. They have 25 million fully diluted shares today, they have no history of making money in their core business much less the very high margins that will be required to overcome the 25 million share ancor. To me this is self-evident. Nonetheless most of the longs haven't abandoned their arguments and hopes in the face of repeated disappointments or repeated claims that Tava is overvalued? So what makes you think they will abandon them when earnings and revenues start to rise? I guess if you have no problem holding for 6 months or more this issue doesn't matter. But please state why you think it makes sense to short the stock now. Or why longs should feel worried about their investment at the present time? RS