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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zardoz who wrote (1220)	7/1/1998 7:17:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3902

another nice day for the Nikkei last night! So when is Japanese strength going to start sucking capital out of our bloated stocks and give us a much needed, big fat correction on the order of 20% or more? mmmmm? -Lucretius

To: Zardoz who wrote (1220)	7/1/1998 12:17:00 PM
From: borb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

"Japan has the cash to do what it wants and when. It's inaction suggest that it wanted to devalue the YEN.".... But why Japan let yen went from 250 to 90 in the past ten years? I think it is the market, not just what the government want. Japan has the largest foreign reserve and trade surplus. This is just like a person with lots of money in the bank and received good income but convinced to be poor, not only to others but also himself. I believe there will be a change when the election is done.

To: Zardoz who wrote (1220)	7/9/1998 4:19:00 PM
From: Ming	Respond to of 3902

5 trillion dollar U.S. national debt. Resulting current account surplus that is now 160+ billion per annum. Japan holds a significant portion of this amount of debt, and therefore posts now a 100+ billion c.a. surplus per annum. Similar situation for many other Asian nations, such as Taiwan, HK & PRC. Dollar's rise is of a speculative and temporary nature, though it is a reflection of economic fundamentals. Asian funds flowing into AAA U.S. bonds yielding 5.6% vs under 2% for comparable Japanese bonds, fleeing panic, depression and imploding financial institutions at home at the same time. This trend will continue in the short term, as Asian economies sink deeper into depression, versus a red-hot U.S. economy. Japan is bogged down by politics, and cannot act quickly to reform itself. Ironically, Big bang will unleash a torrent of Japanese pension fund money coming into U.S. markets, as 9 trillion dollars worth of money will be granted the right to invest outside Japan for the very first time. But in the long run, we're witnessing a flow of wealth across the Pacific. The Asian crisis, on paper, has reduced the wealth of Asia. But tangibly speaking, that paper wealth was the sole creation of speculative money flowing into these countries, much of it from generous foreign lending. The intrinsic wealth of these nations, the billions of export dollars that they have funneled into financing the national debts of Western Nations, remains intact and grows with every passing year. The U.S. is merely acting as a sponge right now, soaking up the speculative money that has left Asia. But it will come as quickly as it went, just like in Asia, when economic fundamentals rear their ugly head and spoil the party. When people realize that corporate earnings cannot grow forever, reality will strike and the bubble will burst.