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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Tokyo Joe's Cafe / Societe Anonyme -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DR. MEADE who wrote (6181)	7/1/1998 8:27:00 AM
From: TokyoMex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8798

CEOs Cautious About Third Quarter WASHINGTON, July 1 /PRNewswire/ -- The third quarter of 1998 will be a period of significantly slower growth in sales, profits, and job creation, according to a survey of the members of the American Business Conference (ABC), chief executives of fast-growing midsize firms. This is important because the midsize sector of the American business community has long been regarded as a bellwether for the economy as a whole. The ABC survey asked CEOs to compare their expectations for their companies in the third quarter with second quarter results. Their response was startling, especially in comparison to our last survey released three months ago: * Sales -- A net 26% of ABC members foresee greater sales over second quarter levels. This was down considerably from ABC's last survey. In that survey, a net 62% of ABC members foresaw greater sales in the second quarter compared to first quarter results. * Profits -- The percentage of ABC members anticipating higher margins on sales exactly balances the percentage foreseeing lower margins (a net 0%), down from the last survey in which a net 32% of ABC CEOs expected higher profits. * Jobs -- The percentage of ABC companies planning to reduce their workforce exceeds the percentage planning to hire more workers, resulting in a net number of -4%. In the last survey, a net 38% of ABC companies anticipated increased hiring. * Wages -- A net 47% of ABC companies will be paying higher wages in the third quarter, down from a net 71% in the last survey. * Investment -- A net 27% of ABC companies will increase their level of investment over second quarter levels, down from a net 45% in the last survey. "The key indicators of our survey -- sales, profits, job creation, compensation, and investment -- are all heading south," commented Barry Rogstad, president of the American Business Conference. "Let me emphasize that the third quarter still promises some growth, but at nothing like the rate we have enjoyed so far in 1998." No Inflation ABC members do not foresee any inflationary pressures in the third quarter. Indeed, in the aggregate, ABC CEOs see a further softening in prices: * Product Prices -- The percentage of CEOs predicting that third quarter product prices will be lower than second quarter levels is larger than the percentage foreseeing price increases (yielding a net -10% overall.); * Cost of Purchased Materials -- As with product prices, ABC members on balance foresee lower input costs (yielding a net -13% overall). The Influence of Asia "I think what we see in this survey is the economic influence of the Asian crisis," said Barry Rogstad. "Beneath the aggregate numbers we are reporting today, I see broad variations across company and industry lines. Those of our companies that export to Asia are being whipsawed. Those with little Asian exposure are, on balance, far more optimistic." "And, ironically, one of the reasons that inflation is at bay is that the Asian economic flu has kept prices down," Rogstad observed. "ABC companies that source in Asia are seeing cheaper input costs while ABC companies that compete here or abroad with Asian firms are unable to raise product prices." "In short, although the kind of growth we have seen in the past two years was too hot not to cool down, problems in Asia are accelerating that cooling process. It remains important to remember that in other ways -- such as inflation -- the economic outlook remains favorable," Rogstad concluded. The American Business Conference is a Washington-based coalition of chief executives of fast-growing, midsize American companies. ABC members advocate policies to promote economic growth and a higher standard of living for all Americans. CHART #1 ABC ENTREPRENEURIAL SURVEY CEO's Assess Outlook for their Firms in 3rd Qtr. 1998 v. 2nd Qtr. 1998 CEO Expectations for Previous Survey 3rd Qtr.'98 v. (2nd Qtr.'98 v. 2nd Qtr.'98 1st Qtr.'98) Sales/Shipments 26% 62% Net Margins 0% 32% Product Prices -10% 0% Employment -4% 38% Wages 47% 71% Cost of Purchased Materials -13% 10% Investment Outlays 27% 45% Cost of Funds 3% -23% Availability of Capital/Credit 23% 42% Note: Data represent net shift of opinion of ABC CEOs. For example, the 26% for Sales/Shipments equals the difference between those ABC CEOs Who Anticipate Higher Sales (53%) and Those Who Anticipate Lower Sales (27%). For a complete breakdown of survey response, see Chart #2. CHART #2 ABC ENTREPRENEURIAL SURVEY CEOs Assess Outlook for their Firms in 3rd Qtr.'98 v. 2nd Qtr.'98 CEO Expectations for 3rd Qtr.'98 Net Compared to 2nd Qtr.'98 Change 0 - Sales/Shipments 53% 20% 27% 26% Net Margins 20% 60% 20% 0% Product Prices 13% 64% 23% -10% Employment 33% 30% 37% -4% Wages 47% 53% 0% 47% Cost of Purchased Materials10% 67% 23% -13% Investment Outlays 40% 47% 13% 27% Cost of Funds 10% 83% 7% 3% Availability of Capital/Credit 23% 77% 0% 23% Percentages represent ABC Members responding to survey. SOURCE American Business Conference CO: American Business Conference ST: District of Columbia

To: DR. MEADE who wrote (6181)	7/1/1998 8:34:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 8798

I don't think they are sleeping. . .I think they are dead. . . It seems the only way to make any money in this market is to short. Shorts are prospering in this bear market [abbreviated by brief rallies]. And if the daily erosion doesn't get you...the surprise reverse splits will. The deadline for pennies to report or be dropped from OTC is near, so radical measures are being seen by scam companies. The scariest measure is when they actually file, giving them the appearance of ligitimacy. Europe funds are doing great past 3 months [better than S and P] for those looking for long term gains. Hedge against world collapse: Funny how Warren Buffet was looking at silver recently. Precious metals traditionally have value when world economies and currencies collapse. Silver rises 3-4 times faster than gold. Buying a bag of US silver coins has advantages, due to well known silver content and "spendable" denominations. When Germany's currency collapsed a half-century ago, a bushel of marks would buy a loaf of bread, but a silver quarter could buy groceries for a month. Momentum runs: Momos are squashed by shorts almost as soon as they start up. Shorts seem to jump into EVERY run, regardless of volume, news or price. Short squeezes still seem to be working, but it takes persistence. SI initiated moves are dead. Big Dog, Joe Copia, Tokyo Mex and others are not suddenly giving out bad picks, nor are their personalities or integrity changing. The MMs and the shorts [mostly in Canada but some in US] are going nuts making money. The more talk on SI about a stock, the more shorts show up. Those with level 2 can actually watch the same MMs show up and immediately sit on a run. And guess who wins every time? General Observations: The way things look, the best play is not to play at all. The odds are in your favor that you can buy back your stocks at a lower price later. The most important consideration is "Investment preservation." Sitting around watching original investment dwindle down to nothing slowly is not fun for anyone. Breadth is nearly always down. New lows beat new highs...even on big up days. It does not seem to matter that a stock has discovered the cure to all illness or solution to the worlds problems. Forget it. The shorts will still jump on it and squash any momentum that may occur. If I sound negative or depressed, it may be due to overconfidence on the part of the reader. I am looking at things from a realistic viewpoint. It has been a while since the majority of the SI population has seen gains [slow, fast or half fast]. And in my opinion, it will be a longer while [contingent upon many things] before this turns around for good. Best wishes to all, Rande Is . ~~~NOTE: These are strictly my opinions. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock.