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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nanda who wrote (12166)	7/1/1998 1:42:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 13949

'The odd thing about the 90% rule is, we're officially at 25%. That is, if a company started in January or February of this year and they officially will complete their code changes in December of 1998, they're at the 25% mark. It's not until they're at 90% that they realize that there's another couple 90%'s to go. This means that it won't be until early December 1998 that they've done the half the work. ... and it won't be until December 1999 that they realize that they've only done 2/3's, the end of the second 90%. So why do people say that things are under control? I suppose it's the same reason that they said, "We have a project plan, our work is done." Noooo, when you have the plan and have completed the assessment, you're at 1-5% at best. When the code changes are done, you're at 40-50%, at best. When the full-up time machine testing is done and you had the code in production for a while, then, you're at 90%. The last 10% will be fixing the glitches that will pop up. Even small ones will be VERY expensive to fix because these will all be CAT-ONE D-Rs against the production system. At that time, you will be very happy that you paid those huge retention bonuses to keep your on-site remediation force in place. While your competition is desperately trying to send code off shore, your domestic, local, team of fat, bald, mean geeks (and even meaner geekettes) will be snip-snip, making those critical corrections. While they're on hold, trying to get through the Telco failures, to "Joe's fly-by-night instant COBOL school and discount Y2K remediation factory", your code will be debugged and fixed in minutes by the real pros, coders who make the right grunting noises and whose fat sausage-like fingers fly over the keyboard. cory hamasaki 549 days. Are the golden handcuffs on your code-heads? No? Do you mind giving me their email addresses? x10.dejanews.com

To: Nanda who wrote (12166)	7/1/1998 2:25:00 PM
From: Kathy Riley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

Check out Zitl today... Matridigm just announced a partnership with Logica in UK, (I think equiv would be Keane in US) for code conversion. Very interesting, big short interest in stock, low stock price.

To: Nanda who wrote (12166)	7/1/1998 6:12:00 PM
From: Cosmo Kramer	Respond to of 13949

The pressure is mounting... Wednesday July 1 10:00 AM EDT Economist Sees Severe Year 2000 Recession Probable WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As the clock ticks toward the start of the year 2000, a leading Wall Street economist says the odds have risen that computer malfunctions will send the world into a severe recession. "The fact is, there are only 550 days, and only 377 business days, until Judgment Day for our computers on January 1, 2000," Edward Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, said in a paper presented at the National Association of Manufacturers. "Progress is occurring, but not as fast as the year 2000 is approaching." Yardeni said the probability of a recession had increased to 70 percent from his previous forecast of 60 percent, and he said inaction on the part of global leaders and slow progress by the U.S. government had increased the likelihood of a crisis. "I can no longer say with any confidence that there is enough time to avoid a severe global Y2K recession," Yardeni said. The so-called "Millennium Bug," or Y2K (Year 2000) problem as it is known in the computer industry, stems from time clocks in computers that recognize years in only two digits and will not be able to differentiate between the years 2000 and 1900. Power outages and disruptions to telephone service and other vital services could result if the snafus were not fixed on computers that run those systems. Yardeni said firms that have not addressed the problem could be cut off by others that have fixed it and could fail as a result. A panic could ensue if the problems were widespread and consumer confidence could plummet, he said. President Bill Clinton has established a "Y2K Conversion Council" to look into how the federal government can address the problem. But Yardeni said a more aggressive effort is needed to set goals and priorities and establish contingency plans. Yardeni, who was named by the Wall Street Journal as the top U.S. economic forecaster in 1997, is well known for his predictions of a Year 2000 recession. He said the downturn could be accompanied by deflation, or a cycle of falling prices.