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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (8846)	7/1/1998 4:35:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Respond to of 74651

I think if Pure Java really takes off (and with players of clout like IBM it likely will) then Sun's momentum may catch on. But the Unix-based desktop that Sun so badly needs to see happy will never become prominent in the business world. MSFT may lose some desktop marketshare here with Java and Browser-based reducing eliminating the requirement for WinTel type systems, but I cant see this becoming very popular in the industry for another 1-2 years. Even if it does and MSFT reduces desktop marketshare lets say to 50%, Sun now has to fight with the multitude of Unix vendors that also want this piece of the pie (i.e. IBM, HP, SCO, Compaq/DEC, Linix, etc.). I dont see where Sun sees any real strong opportunities in the industry that gives them the edge of all the competition. Maybe Java royalities, but how long until the ANSI standards Committee makes this a truly open standard because of industry pressure? You sound like you have a much better understanding of Sun than I. Please give your perspective of where Sun will be very successful. I would be very interested. I might be right off the mark on Sun. As for NOVL, I have done a lot of research on NOVL. Here is my prediction of NOVL's stock progression until December... In the next 2-3 weeks you will see NOVL stock entering the 13-15 range as the very popular Beta program completes (220,000+ beta 3 sent out) and the huge NetWare 5 rollout campaign begins for late summer. Q3 results in late Aug expected to be about equal to street price during this time although BorderManger sales have been much better than expected. With the actual release of NetWare 5 sometime in late Summer we should see a spike in the stock maybe to 17 but it should then settle down between 15-16 for the remainder of fall until Nov. Nov will begin the big jump in NOVL stock to the 18-20 range as the Q4 results will likely far except street estimates. NW5 sales will be agressive and and NOVL will be releasing the long anticipated "NDS on NT" which will let NDS be actually replicated on NT servers. Also, unlike MSFT, the Y2K issue will boost NOVL sales because their NW5 was released early enough for the industry to be able to implement it as a Y2K solution alternative. (for NT5 it will be far to late for the industry to consider NT5 as a Y2K option). Finally, with an entire year of successful execution results and profit figures, Wall street will be totally convinced that NOVL has recoevered and the institutional investors will get in on NOVL stock. This will push the stock into the mid 20s in Q1-Q1 1999. So there you have it Nasdaq. I dont want to push you on any stock buy or sell, but I will tell you that you wont be seeing NOVL stock dropping much below its current price (unless general market conditions affect the stock). Thanks for the good discussion Nasdaq. Toy