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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Phil Melemed who wrote (8848)	7/1/1998 2:07:00 PM
From: Augustus Gloop	Respond to of 74651

He also is from canada where penny stocks take on a whole new level of speculation (manipulation). The land of salted mines.

To: Phil Melemed who wrote (8848)	7/1/1998 5:03:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Phil, You had a very confusing message. You sort of agreed with me but were negative. I agree a lot on many of your points and that is why MSFT will be having a lot of troubles. First, as for how I know about NT5.1, I am not a spy. When the client base my company works with has 10's of thousands of seats, MSFT feels it is actually in their interest to tell us and our customers what they have planned in the long run. So, you dont have to give me any lessons on evaluation cycles on OS platforms or any other technology. I live it every day with our customer base. And for those exact reasons, NT5 will be released so late in 1999 that this product will generally only be seen in the test labs for the first 12 months. In fact with MSFT's history of previous NT rollouts, the corp. customer will be overly cautious about not being the first to install any new release of NT - even more so for the monstrosity called NT5. You asked what the customer will install, they generally wont be installing any NEWLY RELEASED SYSTEMS. NT5 qualifies for this catagory. NW5 will be on the market with more than enough time that continued deployment of NW5 in 1999 will not be an issue. The NT shops will continue to deploy NT4 throughout 1999 and into 2000 until Y2K is long gone and NT5 is proven to finally be clean (about 2 SPs or on the release of 5.1). I didn't say that MSFT current development was something that only a MSFT will do. In fact, I have heard that NW6 is already in development to take advantage of Mercedes 64 bit architecture. The 5.1 code will likely be the implementation of the many features that MSFT has had to remove from 5.0 because their release date has slipped so badly that they can't afford to wait any longer. As for my profile, I dont have to change anything. I do not buy US stocks. One of my roles in my company is to be an industry analyst and have a very strong understanding where the players in the industry are headed. This is one of the forums that I gather information. So, NOVL MSFT SUNW stocks are not of interest to me personally, but I do gain a strong perspective of their stocks based on my understanding of the company and its surroundings. PS - you didnt even bring up the issue of how MSSFT plans to deal wit the countless litigations against it. But then again, there is no way to address it. Its gonna happen - end of story. But thank you for your insightful posting Phil. It was one of the best counter-points yet (actually the only one yet). And in many respects we sort of agreed. Cheers Toy

To: Phil Melemed who wrote (8848)	7/1/1998 8:59:00 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Very few would buy NT 4 or 5 for a mission critical application until the release of Service Pack 1. No surprise there, that's just the way it always works. No large Microsoft customer wants NT 5 released until it is fully tested, even if that means waiting until 12/99. What's even less surprising is that none of this will affect the price of Microsoft stock - its not relevant. The only thing that hammers MSFT stock down is when the CFO or Gates comes out with their usual song and dance about how expectations are too high... expectations they go on to exceed anyway. If you could just get a heads up on when Microsoft plans to talk their stock down, you'd be able to avoid the dips.