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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (4984)	7/1/1998 3:21:00 PM
From: Michael Sphar	Respond to of 9980

Your post contains this: << Industry experts estimate that just 600,000 of China's 1.2 billion people are logged on to the Internet, but predict that figure will mushroom to almost 6 million by 2002. >> Interesting stats. Assuming a doubling each year one gets to 9.6 million PCs (assuming one PC per internet logon). So the rate of growth is on the order of doubling per year. But the absolute number is, well rather puny. Assuming a cost of $1000 per system, and 5% of this going to DRAM, that would make a total market share of DRAM at about $.25 Billion and spread over 4 years. Hard to get excited about these potential revenue. One could really get charged up if say the growth were from 600K to 300M in 4 years. Now that would be worth calling mushrooming! See what you can do... That's assuming an awful lot of copper and cable that just might not be in place today. Course they could go the wireless route.