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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (10324)	7/1/1998 6:22:00 PM
From: Colby	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23519

Big KNY, I know your mail wasn't directed at me, but I thought I'd give you another person's perspective. << -During the greatest bull market in history, have you concluded that your very best investment idea is VVUS?>> At one point, I thought it was a great investment, then it doubled. Then, someone pulled the rug out from under it and here it is at 6. It is not quite the rosy scenario it was a year ago, that is for sure, but I think if the company can find a marketing partner, the future would look a lot brighter. <<-If you had $100,000 to invest, would you give it to Leland Wilson to manage? >> A very good question. That is one of the debates I keep having with myself. Management is the key ingredient and thus far VVUS's has been questionable, to say the least. However, as I mentioned before, I think Mngmt. is capable of producing the product, just not marketing it. <<-Since the launch of Viagra, the ED market has expanded by 16 times and total MUSE Rxs have declined for 12 consecutive weeks, what happened to the positive Viagra "coattail effect".>> This could certainly take time. I think we were all disillusioned. We hoped to see the results a little sooner, but obviously that hasn't happened. If Eddard's practice is any indication, there seems to be a some turnaround, however small it may be. <<-Given the recent MUSE specification trends, how would evaluate the success of the MUSE "Impotence is Optional" campaign and the "Rent a Rep" expenditures?>> They haven't been at it long, but all in all, I would say the campaign has proven itself ineffective. As I said, Kudos for trying, but bring on a marketing partner. <<-Most Big Pharma companies will not even consider launching a new product that does not bring in $250 million per year. Why would any company ever consider purchasing VVUS with a peak sales year of only $120 Million and currently forecasting declining sales?>> Who's forcasting declining sales? Last I looked, analysts expect a turnaround in second half '98 and earnings of over $1.00/share in '99. Do not forget about the international market, either. I would certainly like to see US sales turnaround, but that may take time. <<-Assume that Viagra remains on the market and is launched internationally in late 1998, what do you see as the future of VVUS?>> I'm sure PFE will create havoc if launched internationally, but I do not think it will have the same effect on VVUS as it did here. More news about possible side effects coupled with a more capable marketing partner should help diminish the PFE effect. <<-If a percentage of Viagra patients die solely from the physical exertion related to sexual activity, why wouldn't a similar percentage of MUSE also die from this increased physical activity...particularly since MUSE patients may be suffering from more severe cases of ED and possibly more chronic severe disorders?>> I am a medical laymen, let me point that out. But, it would seem to me, if VVUS users are not suffering the same deaths, perhaps Viagra is more responsible than they or the FDA are saying. <<-Will there ever be a time when you would concede that you made a bad investment and sell VVUS? If yes, what are the milestones and parameters for this sell decision?>> Oh, sure. If it hits 0, I think I might throw in the towel.(ggg) Seriously, I am giving VVUS a few quarters to see what happens. If they choose to market alone and scripts continue to fall, I think that will be my cue. I am still interested in PFE's fate as well. If I were older and suffering from ED, I certainly would be more hesitant to pop Viagra knowing some possible consequences. <<-Do you think that every investor that does not think VVUS is a good investment is "shorting the stock"?>> No, I just think they are out to get me personally. I'm paranoid like that. (g) I can certainly understand not getting into this stock. I question whether I would be in it now, If I wasn't already. I think this stock has a lot of upside if you are willing to take the risk, but that risk is substantial. Anyone who is long this stock and has never questioned their decision is in denial. I appreciate the forum for discussion. It is nice to have you back. Are you still short or have you covered? If so, where would you cover for a gain, or for a loss? Would anything make you consider jumping back into VVUS? Colby

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (10324)	7/1/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

BigKNY3, I see you are getting a wee bit agitated by the lack of Pfun with your Pfizer investment. I will pretty much agree with all of Colby's replys to your questions (thanks Colby for saving me some time). BTW, after communicating with my contact at the FDA today I was told that the commission is seriously considering pulling Viagra off the shelves until the safety issues can be resolved including the retinopathy issue. Seems like the Viagra hype is begining to fade and I am sure it will continue to do so as men who are impotent find out that it isn't all that the media hyped it to be and as the class action lawsuit against Pfizer is soon to be announced. Leland Wilson's credibility has been shot down by the institutions for not tipping them off about the production problems in December. However, small guys like myself would have been stuck holding the bag in the 20's while the big boys got out safe. In fact I applaud Wilson for not leaking the information in favor of the big institutions--this way everyone got stung and not just the small guy. I do believe that a substantial turn around is around the corner and if I wasn't already long on Vivus I would be getting very long at present levels. Vivus will be a $20.00+ stock by the time Q4 earnings are announced unless the entire market crashes. Whether we go down to 5 or back to 10 in the mean time is anyones guess since we are presently at the whim of market maker churning between 5 13/16 and 6 1/4.