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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce anthony Losee who wrote (582)	7/1/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: Beltropolis Boy	Respond to of 3299

>Does anyone know more about the alleged insider trading? bruce. see my post in late may: Message 4530843 these are the only two additional planned sales i've seen since then: Date Name Action Shares Price Value 3-Jun-98 SULLIVAN REGGIE TRUST Planned Sale (144) 15,962 - $582,613 3-Jun-98 SULLIVAN LIONEL CHRISTOPHER TRUST Planned Sale (144) 7,980 - $291,270 some post-meltdown comments (italics mine). i'm gonna be patience over the next few weeks, but i believe this is a prime buying opportunity. ----- FOCUS-Advanced Fibre plunges after profit warning July 1, 1998 05:36 PM By Mark Egan LOS ANGELES, July 1 (Reuters) - Shares of Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. lost more than half their value Wednesday after several brokerage houses downgraded the stock following a negative earnings forecast on Tuesday. Shares of the maker of systems connecting phone customers to local network facilities plunged $21.37 to $18.50 on the Nasdaq market, where they were the most actively traded issue with more than 26 million shares traded by mid-afternoon. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch downgraded the shares early Wednesday, after Advanced Fibre said late Tuesday that its second-quarter earnings would be about half of what analysts were expecting. The company also said its chief executive had resigned. Advanced Fibre said Tuesday it expected earnings per share of between 7 cents and 9 cents on revenues of between $82 million and $85 million -- short of comparable year-ago levels. The forecast earnings were about half what Wall Street had been expecting, based on the First Call Inc. estimate of 17 cents a share prior to the warning. Andy Schopick, an analyst who follows the stock for Nutmeg Securities, said Wednesday's stock drop was to be expected given the news and the volatility of the company's shares. "I'm not surprised at the (market's) reaction given what the company has communicated and given the performance of this stock in terms of its volatility," Schopick said. "Should you go back and look at a price chart you will see many days of very wild price swings in this stock." For example, early last October the company's stock traded above $43 before dipping as low as $25 by Nov. 25. Since then the stock has had numerous peaks and valleys although none as dramatic as Wednesday's freefall. The company cited several reasons for the expected earnings shortfall, including slow sales in China, the loss of a bid for sales at GTE, slower penetration of local Baby Bell phone operators, and local management changes that affected distributor relationships. Schopick said the loss of the business with GTE was the principle reason driving the stock lower. "GTE accounted for 19 percent of the company's revenues last year, equal to $51 million in sales. This year GTE's business is expected to be less than half of that, reflecting competitors wins at GTE at the expense of Advanced Fibre. That's the biggest part of it," he said. Given that outlook, Schopick said he slashed his earnings per share estimate for the current fiscal year to a range between 50 cents and 55 cents from his previous forecast of 73 cents. Advanced Fibre, founded in 1992 and taken public four years later, makes the Universal Modular Carrier system, which allows local phone companies a low-cost way of delivering voice, video and data over telephone lines to nonurban service areas. The company, which is based in Petaluma, Calif., also announced that Chief Executive Carl Grivner resigned to take a senior post at Cable and Wireless Plc of Britain. He will be replaced by Chairman Don Green, who held the chief executive spot until a year ago. Morgan Stanley said it cut its rating on Advanced Fibre to neutral from outperform, while Merrill Lynch lowered its near-term rating on the company to neutral from accumulate. Merrill also cut its long-term rating on Advanced Fibre to accumulate from buy. In the year ago period, Advanced Fibre posted earnings of 11 cents a share on revenues of $61 million, after adjusting for a two-for-one stock split.

To: Bruce anthony Losee who wrote (582)	7/1/1998 7:12:00 PM
From: Beltropolis Boy	Respond to of 3299

>I am not in favor of stockholder lawsuits in general. I believe that >"you pays your money, you takes your chances", but this situation is >ridiculous. As...post 577 indicates, no one saw this coming does anyone have a decent link to recent options tape? a wild spike in pricey puts would be very telling. as someone alluded to earlier, take a look at MANU: only 8 options contracts were traded in the four-week period prior to it pulling a titannic, then 495 were bought in two days. shit like that makes even a keystone cop suspicious.

To: Bruce anthony Losee who wrote (582)	7/1/1998 9:11:00 PM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3299

In addition to Chris' (prescient) insider report from MSN, from Yahoo "Insider": biz.yahoo.com ps., I admit to nibbling a bit when it was coming back through 18, and did NOT go flat on the day.