To: e. boolean who wrote (8334 ) 7/2/1998 4:18:00 AM From: e. boolean Respond to of 164684
Here's a tiny bit of reality that might help spoil the party tomorrow - similar piece in the WSJ, I believe. By Andrea Orr PALO ALTO, Calif., July 1 (Reuters) - Netscape Communications Corp. stock soared Wednesday amid expectations it would be the next Internet business to enter a lucrative partnership with a major media company. But some people familiar with the online business said investors may have misinterpreted the remarks by the Netscape official that triggered the buying furor. Netscape shares jumped $8.625 on Wednesday to finish at $35.687. It was one of the biggest gaining stocks on Nasdaq, and the second most active. A Netscape spokesperson declined to comment on the stock activity. "People looked at that comment (from Netscape Executive Vice President Mike Homer) and said, 'Hmmm, they want to be acquired," said Abishek Gami, an analyst with William Blair & Co. in Chicago. What Netscape was really referring to, Gami said, was its interest in teaming up in limited ways with other media companies to provide content to its Web site. He said this type of alliance has been part of Netscape's strategy "from day one." In an interview on Tuesday, Netscape's Homer said "we're talking to all of them" -- a broad reference to all the big U.S. media companies that might be able to augment its Netcenter Web site. Asked if the company might seek out a single partner to invest in and help promote its business, he replied, "It's not out of the question but it's also not necessarily what we're looking for." The distinction may have been lost on several investors. For the past several months, Netscape has been in a game of catch-up with some other big Internet services like Yahoo! Inc. and Excite Inc. , that have attracted millions of people to its Web sites with non-technical content like shopping, news and horoscopes. On Tuesday, Netscape unveiled a new and improved Web site that diluted the previous focus on computers and software with several new "channels" such as shopping and health. Analysts said these additions will prove valuable to Netcenter, but will not necessarily bring the kind of value many investors are looking for. They said the widespread willingness of people to buy the stock on the basis of Homer's general comments underscored the gambling mentality that had overtaken the whole sector of Internet stocks. A number of other Internet stocks like Yahoo!, Amazon.com Inc. and Internet advertising company DoubleClick Inc. also stormed ahead of the rest of the stock market Wednesday amid expectations of rapid growth in the online business and more mega-deals with media companies. "It's a speculative bubble, regardless of the company's price or its valuation," Bob Walberg, chief equity analyst with Briefing.com in Chicago, said. "People are trying to get involved in the next 'deal company,' and the valuations are becoming obscene." The intense interest in deals in the Internet business follows two recent high-profile deals in which NBC Inc. bought a stake in the online technology news service Cnet Inc. and Walt Disney Co. invested in Infoseek Corp. . These alliances helped validate the Internet business to some of its stubborn critics and set off a race for other media giants to stake a claim on the online business, which is increasingly being viewed as the media of the future. "I don't know of an Internet portal company that isn't in major conversations with the big media companies," said David Wetherell, president of the direct marketing company CMG Information Services Inc. But some analysts warn that this does not translate into unlimited gains for investors. While all companies are in talks with investors, not all will likely seal the coveted deals. And even those who do may still be overpriced, in view of the phenomenal gains of recent months. Bookseller Amazon.com, for instance, which ended trading Wednesday above $114 a share, traded around $40 as recently as early June. "At some point the strategy is going to fail and stocks will make a sustained move to the downside," Walberg said. Others were not so certain. "Imagine the shift from print media to television," said Philip Leigh, Vice President of Internet Investment Research in St. Petersburg, Fla. "The shift from television to the Internet promises to be more powerful. ... I think that is becoming evident to most people."