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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ray Jensen who wrote (1525)	7/2/1998 9:47:00 AM
From: JMD	Respond to of 12823

Ray, thanks so much for your comprehensive reply to chris' AFCI question. I particularly appreciated, in addition to the technology aspects of your response, the discussion of the prevailing mentality in the telecom industry. It makes perfect sense to me that these guys have networks to run, networks that need to work 7X24, and that they can't possible "afford" to experiment with every new bell and whistle that comes down the pike. They can't afford it financially and they can't afford to risk reliability. Finally, given the complexity of the business, it also makes sense that they would want to reduce the number of vendor/suppliers to an absolute minimum. In light of all this, AFCI's product sneaking in the door (a la the camel's nose under the tent) is an impressive achievement indeed. I will freely confess that the obstacles to new product take-up that you so clearly described in the telco industry causes me to invest in the bigger telecom equipment suppliers (TLAB, QCOM)because the little guys have such a huge uphill battle. Even if AFCI looks attractive here as a result of immoderate bashing, my guess is that their upside is that LU buys them cause I don't see how they can make it on their own. Did you see where their departed CEO went to work? Hint: it wasn't a start-up. Anyway chris, my two centavos is that AFCI should be regarded as a discounted means of getting stock in LU or CSCO or somebody IF they get so lucky as to get picked up. Ray: I wonder if you would care to comment on Winstar and Teligent particularly your perspective as the new kids on the block, how they fit in with the prevailing telco industry mentality discussed above? I'm a bit of wireless nut (got tired of the squirrels nibbling their way through my coax and knocking out 49ers games!) but I have to temper my enthusiasm for the same reasons that I won't be rushing out to buy AFCI. Thanks in advance, Mike Doyle

To: Ray Jensen who wrote (1525)	7/2/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: Beltropolis Boy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

ray. stupendous response! and definitely worth more than a couple o' pennies. no offense to mike cuz i know he's an AFCI poster as well, but i learned more from your four paragraphs than the 30 score on the board. indeed, i've got much more to learn. yes, if i'm not mistaken, i do believe that the UMC 1000 is AFCI's only product; however, as you indicated, one of its major advantages, is its flexibility. this applies not only to multiple platforms and configurations, but also to expansion capability: every new "product" announcement is an add-on, for example, SONET/SDH transport, their recent spread spectrum radio (SSR) system, or new compatibility with other systems. i'd also be interested in your take on teligent particularly because i've got a penchant for following local stocks (although that's not entirely rationale when it comes to investing), but also in light of the man at the helm, ex-AT&T prez alex mandl. in addition, while not a last mile player, might you be familiar with comverse technology (CMVT)? rather interesting history in that their first product provided monitoring and recording of audio, data, and fax to the israeli government for "national security and law enforcement," but now they're the third largest player in the voicemail/messaging market (following their recent merger with boston tech). while LU (octel, actually) is a competitor, CMVT's revenues are generated from telcos while LU's are from 'commercial' businesses, so their markets are somewhat different. it was one of my first stock investments after college (all that disposable income back then, you know) and i've been holding ever since. thanks again for your stellar reply, -chris.