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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (49538)	7/1/1998 8:13:00 PM
From: larry	Respond to of 176387

Stock bull, I see. I misunderstood you because I always believe that forward PE means that you use NEXT YEAR's earning in the calculation... I think that the problem with DELL right now is: 1) momentum players finding better return in internet issues; 2) MSFT, LU, CSCO all report earnings in July, and short term players believe that they will have enough time for DELL earning play after they close their MSFT, LU, CSCO positions; 3) DELL has a good jump in short interest last month (24%). And you can see that as DELL approaches its all time high, the shorters have to get worried because they know that when a new high is set, the game is over for them (I strongly believe that if DELL closes above 100, it will run toward 120 in a hurry). DELL is the epitome of bull market. Fleckstein correctly called the issue 'the most important America stock'... Currently I see resistance at 94, 95 1/4, and 98 1/2. However, after watching shorters failing to stop MSFT at 104 last Friday (the shorters won on last Thursday!), I think that it's time for DELL bears to fold the table. larry!

To: stock bull who wrote (49538)	7/1/1998 9:25:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

You wrote: <<LoD, I wouldn't under estimate CPQ or the other major pc players. Don't forget, talent can always be hired. Who knows, some of the players at Dell might even move to CPQ given the right set of circumstances.>> Micron's new CEO is an ex-Dell guy. One of the first steps he has taken is to announce that Micron will de-emphasizing sales to large corporate accounts (Dell's main sales driver)...This is a guy who knows all of Dell's secrets, and is already head of a direct sales PC company with excellent quality products...he would be the type of guy (under your scenario) that would (easily) compete against Dell....and yet, he is RUNNING AWAY FROM DELL.....he knows (all too well) that Dell is too far ahead in the big corporate market (for the minnows) and is simply too competitive, and (2) the consolidation trend (towards the top 4 or 5 vendors) is quite clear for large corporate accounts..... As for Compaq hiring a few Dell guys, how will that help them if they don't completely junk their current model (which they won't do)?..... Packard Bell/NEC's CEO just quit...Things are going well there, obviously.... Many of the other issues you have raised in the last day or so have been sufficiently answered on the thread....Take a look back at the last couple months posts... Waiting until the next good earnings report would have been a horrible strategy over the past 2-3 yrs.....Dell has most often run up before earnings, more than after....unless you are proclaiming Q1 to be some sort of watershed event in investors' minds..With the annual meeting coming up...look for major enthusiasm for this stock during July/early August.... P.S. First Call and all others have consistently landed well below Dell's actual earnings with their forecasts.....To say Dell has a current forward PE of 48 is a bit much.....low 40's or even high 30's is closer to the mark.......Dell's past growth rate has far exceeded that, and IMO, near term, they are in the best position yet to acheive 40+, 50+% growth given the successful introduction and continued market share capture in high enterprise (server, workstation) and now storage...and INCREASING MARGINS (irregardless of lower ASP's) and fantastic growth in all regions in the world on their PC's.....If Michael Dell is quoted as saying they are growing at 5 TIMES THE RATE OF THE INDUSTRY this late into the quarter (as he was the other day)......I would be worried if I were short.....(Of course you aren't, or are you?)