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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Ogier who wrote (10849)	7/1/1998 10:26:00 PM
From: S Shaw	Respond to of 18691

Dear Richard: With respect to Roger's picks, I suggest you look at the total batting average. He hasn't done bad. Secondly, Roger doesn't hold a gun to anybody's head to short anything. Thirdly, everyone is responsible for their own DD. Shorting stocks is a little like bar-fighting, you can expect to take as many shots as you dish out. We are all big boys and girls at this thread, and we know if we can't take the heat it's time to leave the kitchen. Lastly, I'll leave you with this short true story. When I was in college, when I went home, I had to hitch-hike since I didn't own a car and was working my way through. Coming back to school one weekend, I got a ride from a profession pool hustler from Detroit. His one rule that has always stuck with me was "kid, never bet more than 20% of your bank roll on anything." Good advice from a guy who had never seen the inside of a college classroom. As for 1999's picks, I for one will still be here and have great anticipation for what happens in the second half of this year. And next New Year's Day, I will be eagerly awaiting the announcement from Brother Babb that we are off and running for another year. Best regards, Scott Shaw

To: Richard Ogier who wrote (10849)	7/1/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: Momo Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Richard, not so fast, my friend. Although I don't post here often, I follow this thread and others on SI and while I'm sure you're math is correct, you've got to remember that Roger's picks were intended for ALL of '98, not merely the first two quarters. Secondly, other great shorts such as CCSI and CFON, for example, have come along that weren't on the original list, and folks have made good money shorting these and like issues. Personally, I'm getting my head handed to me in BFT, CTXS and to a lesser degree AVNT, but have made swell money shorting PRST, CCSI, ZONA and am ahead in my new TAVA position. The thing is...you read this thread, see what some savvy traders are thinking, knowing all the while your timing's never going to be dead-on, so you keep enough margin in your short account so you can take the heat, and meanwhile your long positions are doing fine and when, not if, but when, the market cracks, voila! You've got a hedge. In other words, while your arithmetic may be right, I still think it's wise to have some short positions because, as you know, those numbers can, and will, change. I wish you good luck...