Good Morrow Don: Those words you posted tonight are some of the most intelligent and insightful in the history of this thread, because as you continually point out and remind us all - sticking with real winners is just about the hardest task on the planet.
The temptation to take profits is just too great. A friend of mine bravely went long Amazon a few weeks back and thought he was a genius when he took profits back at $70 or so, now he feels more like a dunce, standing in the corner and left out of the run!
Your post immediately stimulated a rash of responses, because you have hit a hot button of interest that relates to comparing FNTN's prospects with some of these recent winners and how hard it was to foresee the success that these companies now enjoy.
Firstly, as I see these other stocks soaring on little more than anticipation and in many case a complete lack of profitability, I take great comfort in the knowledge that Financial Intranet has a leading edge, state-of-the-art, paradigm shift product that is just about ready to ship.
The potential market for this range of products Worldwide, is so huge, it is practically indescribable. I can virtually assure you that Intranets of all shapes and sizes are about the become the hottest new growth wave on the Planet.
Now, I note that Robert Ague says I don't think FNTN will appeal to the masses...Don't be so sure...by the end of the Century there will be an estimated 100 million Cell Phone and Pager users in the US, not to mention the rest of the World that will be potential Financial Intranet customers for their paging services that eventually will in all probability extend well beyond their realm of Financial Services. How about this: Imagine being on a train and seeing an ad for a book, and in a future spirit of do it now, not later, lest thou forget, ordering that book from Amazon.com over you pager, supplied to you by Financial Intranet. Now there's a thought...You heard it here first!
Your post tonight raises another interesting aspect of investing in growth stocks: Psychology. Thanks to the concept of SI, which for the first time in history enables people like us with a common interest and investment choices alike, have the opportunity to discuss and inform everything and all that is of vital interest to us.
It also affords us the opportunity to see what was being said during the darkest or early days of a stocks life. Remember the early days on this thread all the doubting Thomases an non-believers who regrettably sold their shares at 25c or less. Once again, in recent days, we are repeating this wall of worry talk with a lot of attendant fretting over the website etc. As I already mentioned my take is that even though the old site is on its last legs as the new one nears completion, they are taking the old site for a spin on a red hot server. I don't know about you guys, but on my machine which is a 200 Mhz 28.8 er, it loads in about two seconds flat! And the Navigation between pages is fast. Blindingly fast in comparison to most of the sites I navigate each day. I tell you, if all sites opened and navigated as fast as this, It would save me a lot of time and frustration. I can't imagine what this would be like on a 56k or ISDN or T1, but all I can say is I think it is a terrific indication of what's to come and underscores the fact that management is working on delivering some hot stuff and implies ample bandwidth preparation being made to boot.
Unfortunately, we don't have the luxury on SI to go back to the days when Microsoft stock was first offered to the public, but I'll bet it would have been just as negative as other startups like Amazon and the thousands of stocks, including the likes of IBM, Chrysler and Intel that have endured near death experiences. I still remember how hard it was to buy Citicorp and Chrysler at $10 per share back in '91.
As I have stated before, even Bill Gates was probably shown the door on more than a few occasions in his history making career. And as for insider selling, a point which has been raised on this thread before now, as sharp as Bill Gates is, I have heard it said that had he never ever sold a single share of Microsoft up till today, he now would actually be worth an extra 25 Billion or so. In General, insiders are not renowned for their great timing.
What we do have in the case of Microsoft and all of the other start-ups that have become legends, is 'Technical Analysis'. I have made it my life's work to study the technical behavior of many of these stocks as they started life, to see what patterns and themes are common when these companies embark on their record breaking runs.
As you may recall, my interest in Financial Intranet was first piqued back in early October 1997, when the first glimpse of FNTN's potentially great future were left in the footprints of one of the most spectacular reversals I have ever witnessed when the stock rocketed almost 500% from .14c to .60 in 4 days on massive volume of over 10 Million shares.
Reversals like this don't happen by accident, they invariably reflect the fact that the smart money is moving into the stock. Next, FNTN spent seven frustrating months or so in a base building mode, during which several attempts to break out of the base failed, in spite of turning the float several times over in an enormous near 50 million share trading binge. This intense activity beneath the surface, disguised by the long base, underscored my belief that the ensuing breakout from the base would be a very dramatic event indeed.
Amidst much doubt and anxiety, the stock suddenly took of in mid-April on another buying stampede that in many ways both resembled as well as balanced the initial October blastoff, with some of the early base extension upside projections being met or even exceeded.
Although, I couldn't pinpoint the exact day it would come, those of you who read my posts back then, know that I had a very high degree of confidence that that day would eventually come and when it did, it was a dream run, albeit hard to keep the hands on the armrests and resist the temptation picking up the phone and selling too early.
Now a couple of months later, we are once again, building a new two-tier base at higher levels amidst another Internet buying frenzy, yet appear to be locked in a similar range.
In just the same way that I was confident back then of a pending upmove in FNTN and that the Internet Stocks would in all likely-hood have a major new run to new highs, following their incredible initial huge percentage surges, I am confident that many of the technical projections from the initial base and this new mini-base have still to be met and they still look much higher. Remember that FNTN did not move immediately on the back of those first runs back then and perhaps the same could be said for that now.
What I can honestly say I feel right now is, that another similar day and potential buying stampede is drawing near, especially when the momentum players and widespread public begin to discover what FNTN really has to offer and how it going to make most other Internet issues look short on product in comparison.
Don't forget, that as each day passes and for each double digit gain amongst the Internet leaders, it renders FNTN more and more, if not ridiculously undervalued when compared to these billion dollar kids and more likely, once again suggests, that this rapidly growing baby really is 'the most undervalued net asset by a mile'.
The public and Wall Street always will seek out value, rest assured. We might look a little lonely for now, but not for long. Following the unprecedented action amongst the Internet leaders, as always happens, players who missed out on those moves will be desperately seeking the next rocket to ride and if we become that rocket as I believe we stand a good chance to, we may have underestimate our own upside potential under these effervescent conditions, which in my opinion far outweigh the behavioral climate of March and April.
This time there are massively greater profits to be re-directed into lower priced undervalued issues and this time around there are far fewer candidates as many of the initial high flyers have not delivered and will not get a second look.
Since FNTN's delivery date is just around the corner, it has to make this issue an unbelievably attractive low priced entry point for late comers to gain a rock solid foothold, (with Siemens Infrastructure backing, Worldcom communications support and Internet backbone and McGraw Hill's S&P Comstock's superior array of Worldwide Financial News and Real-Time data feeds) in the emerging Intranet sector as well as a potential up and coming serious Internet presence.
When you put it all together, following the recent quietness, things sure look pretty exciting to me as the Internet continues to grow exponentially.
Thanks for the stimulating post, Don
Rgds to all
Wiz
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