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Microcap & Penny Stocks : TSIS: WHAT IS GOING ON? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Don Ohland who wrote (2954)7/2/1998 1:37:00 AM
From: Loren S.  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6931
 
This stock takes a lot of patience to hold and hold and hold without seeing any reward. But all those who have become familiar with this stock and company know that they are building a solid business. Every quarter will be better and better. While profits are minimal at this point in time, we know that they will increase as their client base increases and as their services increase. I'm sure the Camerons are very aware of the stagnant stock price, but that should not be their primary concern of course. Building their business should be. At the same time they have hinted that they might buy back shares at some point. Of course they don't have the capital to do it yet. But in time we may see a different kind of press release such as a buy back which might be the match that lights this stock. Another possible match might be a great acceleration of contracts as the word gets out that TSIS services saves businesses money. More likely we just have to wait for financials to come in blacker and blacker each quarter. Patience will be rewarded. This has the potential to be a $10 stock in a couple years IMO.



To: Don Ohland who wrote (2954)7/2/1998 8:53:00 AM
From: jmt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6931
 
>>>I wonder if one reason people don't get extremely excited with
TSIS is their low sales. If you're looking at Sales to stock
price vs. earnings, TSIS isn't that catchy.

IMO, When you dig into their client list and margins, it's exciting. <<<<

You are right on. I spoke to Larry at IR yesterday and he couldn't understand why the price was not moving with all the good news. He blamed it on the short postion. I have a couple of comments to make on that front.

A pure P/E, P/S, free cash flow (they needed $2M to finance operations the last qtr). the stock is expensive. The current price already reflects some of the future growth. The news just reinforces this.

The short position comment was based upon his view of the volume. I would very much like to know how volume can be interpreted this was. MM's trading at no spread between themselves seems to happen with many of these stock, and while I am new to the penny's, i have yet to see a short squeeze. As I mentioned to larry, if there is a short position, the best way to beat it is performance.

Then there are the liquidity issues that keep big investors away. That to can change with upward momentum, but not overnight.

Also if the market is lucrative, it will attract competition from well capitalized competitors. Until TSIS gets a commanding market share, this will also keep the price lower.

As far as revenue, it appears each new contract generates between $5K and $10K per month in revenue. They have added 14 customers since april.

In april AT&T contributed $120K in revenue for a special analysts meeting that was likely a one time event.

Hope this helps. The next quarter numbers if good will go a long way towards credibility and upward momentum. For example, if they earn a nickel in the quarter, project the year at 20 cents, attach a 10x P/E and this should be a $2 stock by the end of the year. I hope they can reach the earning.

Good luck and happy investing.

jmt



To: Don Ohland who wrote (2954)7/2/1998 10:31:00 AM
From: gregor  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6931
 
Dear Don :

I agree with all you said. If you go out as far as most investors like to see you see 7 to 8 million in sales. That would be monthly sales in the next 9 to 12 months of 600 k to 700 k. Currently they are in the 200 k range. or annual sales of 2.5 million. The margins are the kicker like you say. So a 300 % increase in the next year is not that impressive to the market--(this is really a sick stock market we invest in when the market is not impressed by a 300 % increase.)

At some point in time the market may or may not recognize this imbalance. If it doesn't we will still be rewarded with a wonderful return. Either way we are rewarded. Long term judgement about exit points will become very clouded if this baby starts to move. For now I'll "KISS" (keep it simple stupid) this opportunity and keep adding to my position when I have extra cash. gregor