Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marconi who wrote (10858)	7/2/1998 3:15:00 AM
From: George Acton	Respond to of 18691

One way bubbles end is with a final parabolic move up, featuring upside gap openings. Also, volatility of price and volume increase. That doesn't appear to be present in the AMZN chart yet. Another indicator is second-tier stocks in the same industry. For that, you have to decide what the industry is -- internet retail or internet sites, including "portals". Another aspect is psychological. In classic bubbles, people lose their skepticism and become believers toward the end. At the peak in oil, people fervently believed it would go to $100/barrel. The "rational" argument for these stocks is that the internet is the most revolutionary technology of our time and that you have to be invested. But there are very few quality names or places to put money into. This leads people to the argument that the first companies to achieve brand recognition will have a "franchise". But the "franchise" here is in the appeal to mutual fund managers as much as to consumers. The history of these things is that they often go farther than anyone anticipates. But calls of a visionary top like "oil at $100" or "Amazon at 200" aren't reached. --George Acton