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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (2166)	7/2/1998 10:18:00 AM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3033

Melissa, I'm not going to discuss your views of "shorting against calls." Virtually no risk? There is no requirement for a pre-release and since vantive has never missed before, all we can guess is that they'll pre-announce if there's a material shortfall. They might be reviewing contracts to check for any strange clauses that might prevent recognition now. I don't know what's going on, but there's been huge down volume, the stock sure acts miserably. I do know that it was very much down to the wire on June 30th. I disagree with Farber about the stock reaction. Even coming close to meeting numbers or a slight disappointment would be weak in comparison to sebl's results. Vantive has made a massive strategic error by making the silly claims that they "passed sebl" in sfa, or even that they're a player in sfa. The problem is that sebl's going to show something like $80 to $85 million in revenues with hints that bookings are north of $90 million in the quarter. The street's reaction to vantive just squeaking by on lower growth rates and fractional revenues won't be impressive. There could be some short covering starting next week that could drive some trading upside if they don't pre-release soon, but I can't think of a catalyst to get this stock moving again. Vantive has set up a beauty contest between itself and sebl, short term they're going to lose. This is compounded by the recent rebound of both aurum and clairfy. I know of a massive sfa deal that vantive lost as the incumbent on the support side to aurum's newly refreshed product. On the "south side" of things with ignored and overlooked clfy, it appears they've come back and won a few massive deals as well. The only catalyst I can think of that could provide a short term boost is the potential of a sale to oracle or some other big gun. good luck, TD