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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (18591)7/2/1998 1:30:00 PM
From: joe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 45548
 


>>Japan did not deliver anything bold....hence yen is down 3+
Inventories are rising in the US and have been ....which will lead to increasing
unemployment, price/margin erosion etc etc....<<

Look how much the HK and Japanese markets jumped. Sure, Japan
is not going to get the plan right the first few rounds,
but this seems like a signal that somehow the world and
Japan will not let their banks cause a crisis.
(still have to read what's the problem with 'the plan'...but
these are my impressions)

>>Margin erosion will lead to weaker CAPEX budgets.....hence weaker technology
spending on the part of corporations..... with added pressure from y2k and euro
conversions....<<

Seems to me that computer equipment prices can be called
deflationary. I see more cap equip spening in the future,
especially if Fed lowers rate because the economy is
slowing down.

>>Yields are still inverted and have been for quite some time.....a precursor to a fall in the
markets.... when being the question.<<

I don't buy into this argument. It was good for the
high inflation days. We're in a different econmic environment,
...more like deflationary.

>>The fed warned all banks this week to review their loan portfolios....<<

What for? Any specifics? (I still have to read about it.)

>>Oil prices have contributed to the other liquidity problems of some important emerging
economies.... including Russia.....

Any Russian loan defaults could infect european banks spreading weakness to first
world economies.....<<

I don't understand how Russia factors into anything world-wide.
Sure, it's depressing for a large part of the world to be
in that state. But, they've had problems for a long time,
and nobody is really dependent on them. There economy is
miniscule in comparison to Europe's.

>>Interest rates in the United Kindom have been trending higher...<<

This could be a big mistake on their part. Their afraid
of inflation, when lots of people think they should be
worried more about deflation.

From the questions you're asking, it seems like you might
be a gloom and doom person about the state of the world.
True?