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Biotech / Medical : The Stock for 1999(Polymedica)PLMD(Medical Supply Co.) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Newman who wrote (1313)	7/3/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: Ronald J	Respond to of 3414

I believe the reason for the decreasing earnings estimates is due to all the promotional and marketing expenses being incurred by PM. This could be a negative for the stock in the short term and in their next two earnings reports. After that we should see a better stock price as the number of subscribers continue to increase.

To: Alan Newman who wrote (1313)	7/3/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: Abuckatatime	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3414

Alan, Zacks posted more info re Josephthal's estimates for FY 99 so now we have them for six consecutive upcoming quarters. PM: JOSEPHTHAL & CO decreased estimate for quarter ending 06/98 from $0.14 to $0.12 on 07/01/98 PM: JOSEPHTHAL & CO decreased estimate for quarter ending 09/98 from $0.15 to $0.13 on 07/01/98 PM: JOSEPHTHAL & CO increased estimate for quarter ending 12/98 from $0.17 to $0.19 on 07/01/98 PM: JOSEPHTHAL & CO increased estimate for quarter ending 03/99 from $0.18 to $0.22 on 07/01/98 PM: JOSEPHTHAL & CO increased estimate for fiscal year ending 03/99 from $0.64 to $0.65 on 07/01/98 PM: JOSEPHTHAL & CO has reiterated estimate for quarter ending 06/99 of $0.17 on 07/01/98 PM: JOSEPHTHAL & CO has reiterated estimate for quarter ending 09/99 of $0.19 on 07/01/98 PM: JOSEPHTHAL & CO increased estimate for quarter ending 12/99 from $0.22 to $0.23 on 07/01/98 As you indicated Josephthal lowered estimates for the first two quarters of this fiscal year, consistent with Lee's projections, and with those of Cruttenden Roth and Oscar Gruss, but increased estimates for the last two quarters and for the year ( note that quarterly estimates add to $.66, not $.65!). Summing estimates over the first three quarters of each fiscal year and comparing them shows that Josephthal projects earnings growth of over 30%. Extrapolation suggests FY2000 eps of roughly $.85. In the last press release Lee gave guidance regarding earnings for the first quarter and reasons for a dip in sequential quarterly results. IMO we are looking at a stock price that already discounts for this dip but does not reflect a valuation appropriate for a company growing earnings at 30% or more on an annual basis. Assuming that earnings for Q1 match or better consensus estimates and that receivables are improving as predicted, I expect to see a more reasonable multiple. Greg