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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TOM KARIS who wrote (21058)	7/2/1998 2:26:00 PM
From: SilasSan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Shutdowns mean NO SALES, NO PRODUCTS ... This translates into weaker qtr for AMAT. Maybe. Maybe not. Sales may still be made by a skeleton staff from inventory (which might be considerable in light of the current business climate). Closures (furloughs etc.) mean drastically reduced salary costs and overhead too. This sector has been pretty well hammered as it is. With the constant drone of bad news and naysaying anyone who wants out has had ample impetus and opportunity over the last few weeks. But witness the resilience of AMAT's current price. Somebody's buying when the sellers sell and the price has bounced off of resistance around 28 and hovered around 30 in spite of it all. AMAT has guided expectations lower. IMHO, AMAT need only meet or beat these expectations to convince the market that they know what they're doing and that they will eventually emerge strong and profitable. I suppose that money managers with more money than I've got (that would be all of them) and a time horizon of 12 to 18 months (I'm looking as far ahead as dinner tonight) and a fair to good outlook for the economy (it will get better, won't it?) are finding AMAT a bargain. I think the bad news is priced-in and I expect to see the price drift up in the absence of bad news and pop up when they meet expectations. JI