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Technology Stocks : CYRIX / NSM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale J. who wrote (27784)	7/2/1998 2:49:00 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33344

Dale, Yes, But you make it sound as though the 8 out of 10 PC companies that jumped ship are out celebrating over their newfound profits. It has been a disaster for IBM, HP, CPQ etc. CPQ made a mess of their business. I suspect they will begin to rethink the situation. So you think the key to selling computers at profit is to buy the chips from the most expensive source? Joe PS: Packard Bell almost went belly-up with your strategy.

To: Dale J. who wrote (27784)	7/2/1998 3:14:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33344

Dale, There's a market share land rush going on among the big five PC makers. Compaq's strategy took it to first place in retail and almost put Packard Bell out of business. This is good for CPQ, bad for PB. Intel's business model has been predicated on MPUs selling at ASPs well over $200 in order to have a revenue base which can sustain massive capital investments. How they will adjust to lower ASPs remains to be seen, and "you should keep your eyes open" to see how this addressed by the company -- the lower ASP trend has just begun. So far, Whitney, Mendocino, and lower capital spending are the responses I've heard from Intel. Mendocino/Whitney hurts ASPs. Lower capital spending lessens a competitive advantage. I'd avoid all x86 suppliers if at all possible. Bob

To: Dale J. who wrote (27784)	7/2/1998 3:14:00 PM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33344

RE:"if you invest in the semi stocks you should keep your eyes open." Dale, As soon as one of Intel's competitors gets their manufacturing capabilities up to speed (i.e. competitive MHz and yield,) Intel's bottom line is toast. The only thing that has protected Intel so far, has been the ongoing problems at the AMD fabs. NSM is entering the picture with their own fabs, and IBM is showing a willingness to provide state of the art technologies to Intel's competitors. If you take a longer term view of the situation, it becomes obvious that: 1. NSM, AMD, IDT, Rise, Metaflow, etc. are not going away. IBM will make sure of that. 2. Low priced PC's are not going away. 3. Intel can not keep their margins up. 4. There is very little upside potential for INTC. If I were an Intel engineer, I would seriously consider switching companies at this opportune time. Scumbria