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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wooden ships who wrote (5707)	7/2/1998 5:48:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Wow! That was a powerful and skillfully written post. While I was reading your phrase, "A worthy list might include onerous and misguided taxation policies, ... stagnant population growth, a disenchanted, if not wayward, younger generation, a proportionally large and growing elderly segment, ... interlocking business alliances... ," I almost forgot which country you were discussing. Best wishes, I2

To: wooden ships who wrote (5707)	7/5/1998 8:21:00 PM
From: wooden ships	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

Notes from the Starship Moneytalk: Despite the rich valuations in the market, Brinker appears to be holding the course vis a vis dol- lar cost averaging into an intact bull market. On the other hand, Brinker remains vigilant lest the bear emerge from hibernation. On Saturday, Brinker cited the opinion Deutsche Bank's chief eco- nomist Edward Yardeni who, on 29 June 1998, raised the probability of a global bear market to 70% beginning late 1999 and predicted that a 5% decline in US GDP will subsequently ensue over a 12 to 24 month time frame. Yardeni bases his dire prognostication of a global recession worse than that of 1974, which saw US stocks decline an average 40%, upon the Asian financial implosion and, especially, on the world-wide bedevilment he deems likely to be wrought by the Y2K bug come annum Domini 2000. Readers of this thread since February 1998 are doubtless familiar with Ed Yardeni's Y2K concerns which were cited here at that time. Brinker at once doubts that Y2K will cause the havoc and economic downturn which Yardeni et alii forecast. The largest companies will be compliant and thereby unaffected come 1 January 2000, Brinker asserted. No mention was made, however, of those scores of thou- sands of subcontractors to those largest of companies which sup- liers may remain Y2K noncompliant; nor was mention made of various governmental agencies ranging from the military to the IRS to myriad State and local entities which, by their own admission, are lagging in Y2K compliance. Further, Brinker did not address the the devilish problem of so-called "embedded systems," i.e., date sensitive computer hardware. Various experts have estimated that 2% of all computer chips worldwide are at risk in this wise. For more on Yardeni's assessments, please see the following: yardeni.com Some on this thread have expressed great skepticism as to Japan's resolve in cleaning their financial house and their bold pronounce- ments of late in this wise. Indeed, not a few of us will be surprised to read the Reuter's headline for 5 July 1998, to wit, "Hashimoto Seen Backtracking on Japan Tax Plan. For the whole story, please see: biz.yahoo.com Brinker echoed, if not, re-inforced the aforesaid skepticism and con- tinued to recommend nil direct investment in Japan In another vein, Brinker re-iterated, perhaps in response to discus- sions on this thread, his avowed strategy of disgorging all stocks all hallow should his Marketimer model flash a true sell signal.