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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KM who wrote (601)	7/2/1998 6:18:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3299

OT*** PMTC got killed one day after AFCI. (Today.) Actually, intimation of its warn leaked out over the past week, as a real sharp analyst figured out the pre-announce was likely by skillfully reading some tea leaves. It dominates its particular enterprise software space. CAD programs. Had some software transition issues as its sales force sharply de-emphasised its tradition major CAD product to focus on introducing a new CAD and specs. database product (which builds on ProEngineer). I believe it's new to the industry, and which customers have been clamoring for it. It potentially greatly expands the market space which Parametric operates in. Basically, PMTC thought its ProEngineer product was a bit more on autopilot than it turns out to be. Also, there is some concern that the slower growth forseen for that product due to a maturing market may be right at hand, as opposed to a bit off in the future. However, I think its mostly a misdirected sales force issue. The saving grace is that there isn't any competitor breathing heavily on PMTC's neck. It's the clear leader, except in aerospace, where it has been making inroads. Also, Japan has been slow for a year, and got a bit slower. But mostly its that its key older product, ProEngineer (the leading CAD program) saw much lower sales, while the new Windless (I think that's the name) program had some big sales come in the last couple of days, and the next few---but not in 2nd quarter. A contributing factor I think is that it is part way into transitioning to a new ERP program, and therefore may be a bit blind on its numbers. (Its implementing Oracle's ERP programs.) This has not been emphasized by the company, but they did mention it. Nobody else seems to be picking up on this, but it seems to me that this sort of blindness has been a real issue for a number of companies, and is poorly understood by the markets. (Tellabs had a similar problem, but was not undergoing any big product transitions, so nothing ended up much amiss. As it happened.) Should be a fast partial rebound, for some real strong gains off of today's close around 16 (which is where I loaded up). Doug

To: KM who wrote (601)	7/2/1998 6:24:00 PM
From: dougjn	Respond to of 3299

Yeah, I like Gilder too. Sort of. (Hey, he's a fellow PEA allumnus.) A bit wooly sometimes for my taste, but I think his future gazing is pretty much best of breed. And I certainly agree that wireless and data telecom is one of the very best sectors to be in. In fact, about 80% of my portfolio is split between that area and enterprise software. Not too co. concentrated, but very sector concentrated. Its what I believe will (keep) bring(ing) home the bacon. <gg> Doug

To: KM who wrote (601)	7/2/1998 6:30:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3299

Clam Clam is an old telecom equipment hand. I see him here and there. He was a lot more SI active a year or so ago than these days. I think he may have worked for Digi a while back. (Or perhaps that was someone else who was talking on this thread a couple of months ago.) Digi is where the AFCI boys came from. Classic case of some hot young turks breaking off and forming their own company. Anyway he knows whereof he speaks. When he chooses to. These days he's being a bit closed --- well ---- shelled. <gg> Doug