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To: Dell-icious who wrote (11666)7/2/1998 8:35:00 PM
From: Hiram Walker  Respond to of 27307
 
Dell, I have seen many mania's in groups come and go. The Biotech one,the casino one,all have ignominious endings. Well I suspect the internet will be in our lives forever,just not in the present form. Things change rapidly,but you must still remember basic economics. The FED has pumped tremendous liquidity into our markets,to avoid a financial collapse worsening in Asia.China is holding up their end of the bargain,and is as powerful as us right now in dictatin global events. If the yuan devalues,Hong Kong goes,and so does the world markets,they know this.
Also remember the Euro is born in December,and the outflow of money from dollar denominated accounts to the Euro may be dramatic. This will stop the inflow of money into our markets.
Then there is the issue of the FED tightening after the elections in November,I suspect that is a done deal as of now. There was a chance they would raise a small amount now,but it looks like they are probably not going to.
When next year comes,the slowdown will begin,advertising will drop,as it does in all slow downs,as companies cut back and retrench.
September through November will be ugly,to say the least. There will be a good January rally, followed by a recession next year,going into a debacle by year end. This is just a forecast,and guess,based on no known facts,just Hiram looking into a crystal ball(that has been cloudy for some time).
Hiram