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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (47277)	7/3/1998 8:28:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE ---------------------------- During the recent past many of the indexes set high highs which is a strong indication of further upward movement. However, the DOW did not and infact is staying within the pattern of lower highs. For this immediate current upswing last week it needed to break 9070 to break the pattern of LOWER HIGHS. If the dip which occured on Thursday continues, then the next test is whether the DOW creates a HIGHER LOW, which I believe will happen. The reaction of the NAZ on THUR was not good. Subjectively, feel thta it retraced too much too fast and the NAZ internals actually deteriorated again. Yes, many of the NAZ/HiTECH indexes set new highs, but there again their retracement was too strong which is giving hints that the rally in the NAZ may not be as strong as it appears on the surface. I had previously called the top for this upswing to end WED/THUR, and it did start to pullback for the overall market on Friday. In light of the NAZ strong dip on Friday, DOW not surpassing 9070, and market internals not showing continued improvement, I feel that the dip that started on Friday will continue. There is a weak support at 8930-8950 which may not hold, and the next strong support is at 8750. Overall, for the time being feel that we are still in a trading range for the overall market, although for those indexes which set new highs, the range may have shifted up somewhat. Going back to April I had originally established the trading range for the DOW to be 9300-8750, and since it broke it to the downside I adjusted it downwards slightly to I believe 8600-9100/9150. I have such a bad memory, forgot exactly where I adjusted it to, but believe that is close. I still may have to readjust the DOW's range back up slight with the top at 9300 but for now do not see the overall market going much higher. YEH, YEH, YEH - I know, summer rally, 10,000 for the DOW ETC,ETC,ETC. Technically, I still see a trading range, although the range may move up somewhat. If the DOW does dip back to 8750 then that would confirm my trading range position. If the DOW only dips say another 100 points, then its higher and the range will just shift higher. In other words I do not expect any more huge runs this summer as we saw for the NAZ, keeping in mind that the NDX ran almost 200 points in about 2 weeks which is 1300+ DOW points. The chances for the DOW to retest it lows of 8570 intraday has been reduced significantly, but it is still technically possible. Can you imagine if the market was to retest the lows, that would be a huge psychological blow to the bulls. Although I sound bearish, I will initiate a long position during the forthcoming dip. Also still maintain the position that the key to the market for this interim is the market internals. Seeya and happy 4th of JULY. Im heading to Amish country.