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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: andy steele who wrote (6608)	7/3/1998 3:33:00 AM
From: Cary C	Respond to of 29382

A conversation with Todd at APCO..... I spoke with Todd today. Easy Care Standard program is still in the works. They are hopeful that it will be done soon. I still believe there will be additional analyst coverage soon but Todd wouldn't confirm or deny it other than to say it looked like a couple had expressed an interest. I guess there has been some rumors that APCO might hit .16 this quarter. Todd wanted me to let everyone know that this isn't going to happen. They are comfortable with consensus of .11. He faxed me a copy of a report from Morgan Keegan and asked me to relay it to the thread. In regards to APCO expressing comfort with the consensus estimate of .11....... " In our conversation with management, we got the impression that the company expects to exceed the .12 high estimate for the second quarter by .01or so" As I stated awhile ago, this would mean .13 possibly .14 In regards to Banc One, Allstate and Manheim...... "All three programs appear to be progressing as expected at this point. Although these agreements are all in very early stages, continued success in these programs could provide meaningful upside in APCO's revenues and profits in 1999. we are carefully monitoring the bottom line contribution of these new programs" " At current levels, APCO shares are trading at roughly 23.2 x our 1998 estimate and 19.6x our 1999 estimate, a discount to what we believe is a 20 - 25% long-term growth company." " Our rating remains Outperform" To me it is interesting to note that Morgan Keegan still has not revised their numbers and the 23.2 and 19.6 %'s were based on .44 for 98 and .52 for 99. Yeah right! .52 for 98 is probably more like it. I would look for Morgan to up their estimates after the numbers for the second quarter are released. I also believe that the company is more along the lines of a 25 - 30% growth company So Todd doesn't get mad at me, the thoughts in the last paragraph are strictly mine not Todd's or the companies. At least not that they are telling me Cary